Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers: Matchups and predictions
By Graeme Klayh
The regular season has just wrapped up, the real test begins. The Toronto Raptors have been talking all year about the playoffs, and now it is time to prove themselves against the Indiana Pacers. Will the Raptors be able to put it together for their first seven game series victory in franchise victory? Will Paul George’s Pacers prove to be too much in the matchup? Let’s find out.
Let’s meet the teams
The Toronto Raptors have finished the best regular season in franchise history to date. They finished the season a remarkable 56-26 with two Eastern Conference All-stars and a lot of depth behind them. The Raptors finished the year with the 5th best offense of the season and the 11
best defense. One positive coming into the playoffs is that the Raptors lead the East with the best defense in April, limiting their opponents to 95.3 point per game at 41.5% shooting (so what if it was against lesser teams?). Now that the team is starting back to zero, they will need to key in on their strengths. The offense is always going to score points, but the defense will need to prove itself all over again. With 185 playoffs games between the team, they seem ready for the challenge after their tough defeats the past two years. The key for the Raptors is that they are 45-5 when holding opponents under 100 points on the season, and will need to continue the trend.
The Raptors opponent as the 7th seed are the Indiana Pacers. The team began the year 12-3 on an incredibly new offensive scheme that centered around small ball. But as the season wore on, opposing coaches figured them out and dominated their small ball by exposing them on the glass and attacking inside. By going back to a more traditional lineup, they were able to find their footing as a team, but it doesn’t seem like it’s all clicking. In an attempt to increase the offensive firepower, the results flopped. The team ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency and will be hard pressed to score in the playoffs. Their saving grace is their magnificent defense where they are 3rd best in the association. Having defensive studs such as George Hill and Paul George is a good start when facing off against Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
Season’s results
The Raptors took the season series 3-1 with each team holding a blowout. Overall, Toronto was +15 in the 4 games, and even took the last event handily while resting their two all-stars. The Raps have also taken 7 of the last 8 games between the two, but since George missed most of last season, it is hardly surprising. The one game the Pacers won was in Indiana where the Raptors took a 20 point early first quarter lead, only to cough it up in the same period and go ice cold the rest of the game. It was one of the more fluky games of the season and won’t be the norm.
Head to head matchups
Kyle Lowry vs. George Hill
Kyle Lowry is clearly the better of the two players. Lowry has work himself into a top 10 player in the league, and while he has been considered an elite point guard the past few seasons, he is healthy and ready for the playoffs this time around. Hill is no slouch, although he doesn’t have the offensive fire power that Lowry possesses, he can bring it on the defensive end. If you’re a Pacers fan you’ll take this matchup, as one of your team’s best perimeter defenders will take on the Raptor’s best.
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Norman Powell vs. Monta Ellis
It’s easy to choose Ellis in this matchup since he has a proven track record as a scorer in the league. This season he isn’t averaging his 20ish points per game, but he can still fill it up. Powell will likely take the challenge to limit Ellis’ opportunities, and the way he has been guarding down the stretch, Raptor fans can rest easy knowing we are in good hands. Let’s not forget about Powell’s scoring outbursts lately, he is averaging 15.3 points per game on 54.8% shooting overall and 53.6% from three. If he can consistently knock down the long range shots, while throwing in some transition buckets, he may surprise us all one more time and may take the matchup.
DeMar DeRozan vs. Paul George
The last time these two faced off, DeRozan had 28 points (on 24 shots) but more importantly, George had 18 points (on 24 shots). DeRozan did a respectable job defending George throughout the game and really showed his defensive chops. George has been fantastic during his first year back from serious injury, but he is the first to admit he doesn’t have his defensive quickness back just yet. This will leave DeRozan some room to work on offense, but the defense between them is what will win the battle. So this one will have to go to George.
Luis Scola vs. Lavoy Allen
Not the marquee matchup we would be hoping for come playoffs but every Raptor fan in the world is hoping Coach Dwane Casey pulls a quick one and changes the starting lineup for the playoffs. Scola has been a tire fire the back half of the season; he’s been a defensive sieve and his three point shooting can’t make up for it. He doesn’t belong among the starters in a playoff series where every point matters. Lavoy Allen is no prize either, at least he can offer some defense for the Pacers, while being fairly limited on the scoring end. This matchup is such a tossup I can’t even decide, but I still have a suspicion that Frank Vogel will replace Allen with Myles Turner, while I remain hoping that Casey puts in Jason Thompson as patchwork.
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Ian Mahinmi
Mahinmi has made a lot strides in his first season stepping out from behind Roy Hibbert’s shadow. He is averaging career bests 9 points and 7 rebounds per game, while supplying ample rim protection for a tip top defense. As good as he has been, Valanciunas has been better, especially recently. The Lithuanian big man has been much better protecting the rim. In his last 10 games, he is limiting opposing players to 52.4% around the rim, which is more than 7 percentage points better than league average. Although he has trouble with the mobile big men, he won’t have to worry about that too much in this matchup. His offensive game is slowly expanding to include a fairly reliable midrange jumper, and he shouldn’t have a problem executing his post-game. JV will definitely be able to take this matchup through the entirety of the series.
Raptor Advantage
Backcourt Strength
The Toronto Raptors sport the 2nd most dynamic and effective backcourt in the league only behind the Golden State Warriors. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are elite at many things that can change the outcome of any given game. Lowry’s three point shooting is as good as they come in volume, while he uses his high basketball IQ and motor to outsmart and outworks his opponents. This adds up to his superstar level of play even though he may not possess the best all-around skills. DeRozan on the other hand is elite at getting to the rim. He draws contact and is good for 8 or 9 free throw attempts per game. It also helps that he has the intangibles to shoot from distance and find his teammates to keep the defense honest.
Bench Depth
The Toronto Raptors fought most of the season being a solid 8 deep team due to injury. As the season progressed and the rookies, newly signed Jason Thompson, and role players found their groove, the team has grown into a deep team that can throw a few different looks at the opposition. Outside the usual guys, there is the combination of Norman Powell/DeMarre Carroll/James Johnson. Each one offers a little something different and the combo can play the 2,3, and 4 in a pinch. That depth is good to have if something goes wrong. Not to mention the emergency Delon Wright who has proved himself toward the end of the season at point guard. The depth is something the Raptors have and can use if they really need to.
End of the season surges
Jonas Valanciunas, Norman Powell, and DeMarre Carroll are all players who have recently come around with their play or from injury. Their presence will make quite a difference in their own way. JV (as mentioned above) has improved his defense and offensive skills lately. Norman Powell has blown everyone’s expectations out of the water on the defensive end and especially on the offensive end. DeMarre Carroll has returned and expects to give his full defensive effort that we can trust, all other offense from him is just gravy. The only player on the team to fall off the map is Luis Scola, and considering the timing of that, it couldn’t possibly of worked out better.
Raptor disadvantage
Superstar power
Kyle Lowry is great and all, but he gets his game off through sheer hard work and hustle. It’s the reason why he has improved so much throughout his career, and the reason Toronto loves him. The Pacers have Paul George, who has seemingly unlimited offensive and defensive skills (and is still getting better). We have seen many times this season where the Raptors were outdueled by another’s superstar. James Harden, Russell Westbook/Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry, just to name a few. Paul George could possibly be in that class if he didn’t have his injury, but he is still pretty damn good. He can shoot from anywhere on the court, take it to the hoop and draw contact, and find his teammates with ease, all at 6’9”. Thankfully, as Zach Lowe spoke in his recent podcast, George isn’t the type of player who will take over games and try to get 50 every game, it isn’t in his DNA. At that point, the Raptors just need to make sure he doesn’t change.
Three point shooting
This part scares me the most since the Raptors are one of the worst in the league at defending the three. With sharpshooters George, C.J. Miles, George Hill, and to a lesser extent, Soloman Hill, and Myles Turner, the Raptors will have their hands full. The Pacers’ season average is right around average (35.1%) but that can change since the Raptors let up around 37% on the season.
Matchup at power forward
The power forward is one of the most questionable on the Raptors’ squad. If Luis Scola gets his regular dosage at the starting position, it may be tough to handle. Patrick Patterson is still a defensive stud, able to move around the perimeter, switch onto guards, and even get the occasional block. That is good news since the Pacers can throw out stretch forward after stretch forward. If they so choose to go small, they have Paul Goerge, if they want some inside-out play, they have Solomon Hill and Myles Turner to play both. Patrick Patterson will likely get all the minutes he can handle to combat the tandem.
Raptors’ big question – what will the rotation look like?
Will DeMarre Carroll reclaim his starting spot at small forward? Will Dwane Casey throw out literally anyone else other than Luis Scola? These are questions we won’t know until just before tip-off.
Also, how deep will Coach go into the bench? By my count, there are at least 10 players deserving of playing time (in his eyes), with 2 at each position. Point guards Lowry and Cory Joseph, shooting guards DeMar DeRozan and Terrence Ross, small forwards Norman Powell and DeMarre Carroll, power forwards Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola, centres Jonas Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo. All of these guys are guaranteed to play in game 1, and Jason Thompson will definitely get thrown into the fire somewhere along making 11 qualified playoff players. A pretty good problem to have.
Next: Playoffs and the 3-point shot
Prediction
The Raptors are the better team through and through. Look at it qualitatively or quantifiably, Toronto simply has the better overall team. Their offense is one of the best in the league and their defense is good enough to stifle a horrid Pacer attack. Frank Vogel is a great coach who has paced his teams to a couple eastern conference finals so it will be interesting what he will do to blitz the Toronto backcourt. On the other side, I am curious to see what Dwane Casey has in store for the pacers, he has shown that he is slow to adjust in previous years and I hope this is the year he can put it all together. There haven’t only been improvements from the players this season, and it is now Casey’s time to shine as much as it is the player’s. I think they are capable.
Raptors in 5.
All stats courtesy of Nba.com/stats and Nba.com