The Raptors face the Heat in what I expect to be a lengthy and arduous playoff series. Here’s a preview.
Welcome to the unfamiliar territory of Round 2 of the NBA playoffs. Your Toronto Raptors are the hosts and begin their tour of duty at home against the Miami Heat.
What does Game 1 look like? We need to consider what happened in each team’s previous series for some clues.
Miami
The Heat won this series because of their defense. They held Charlotte to an average of 90.3 Points Per Game [PPG] while scoring 99.1 themselves.
By contrast, the Raptors averaged 92.3 PPG and allowed Indiana 93.7. Winning a series despite being outscored is an anomaly unlike to be duplicated.
The Heat badly outrebounded the Hornets (330 to 258), led by Hassan Whiteside’s 11.4 boards PG. He had more blocked shots (24) than the entire Hornets team (23).
Miami leaned heavily, perhaps too much so, on their starting five. They chewed up the bulk of the minutes, which is normal in the playoffs, though not to this extent. Of course, they faced two elimination games, so I’m sure their coach, Erik Spoelstra, wasn’t worrying about the next round. He was going to win or lose the first round with his best people on the floor.
Toronto
Unless Kyle Lowry returns to his early-season form, the Raptors will continue to run a dysfunctional offense. His shooting, which I’m tired of mentioning, has been so bad as to lead to speculation that he’s masking an injury.
If Lowry can help the spacing by hitting some 3-balls, the game will open up for secondary scorers like Jonas Valanciunas. He certainly needs more touches than just those provided by putting back someone else’s missed shot.
We’d all like to see the label of “volume shooter” (or worse “ball stopper”) removed from DeMar DeRozan’s forehead. He attempted 138 shots against Indiana, by far the most of any Raptor or Pacer. That’s 15 more than Paul George, who outscored our man by almost 10 PPG.
Yes, DeMar should lead the teams in shots taken, but not by 40 more than Lowry, or 64 more than JV. Those are absurd margins.
3 keys to a Game 1 Raptors victory
- Balanced scoring. Coach Dwane Casey needs to have a little more faith in someone like Terrence Ross. Long-range shooters like him need more than one or two attempts to get rolling. We must have more 3-balls going splash; that applies to DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson as well. Paint points will be in short supply with a shot-blocker like Whiteside lurking.
- Take quality shots. The Raptors owned the glass against the Pacers; that won’t be the case against the Heat, unless they can get Whiteside into foul trouble. He will vacuum most of the defensive rebounds, so 20-foot turnaround jumpers had better be few and far between for the Raptors [I’m looking at you, DeMar].
- Stay on your feet on defense. Dwyane Wade can make the best of defenders look silly with his master’s collection of ball and head fakes. If he’s going to score, it has to be with baskets, not free throws.
I fully expect long periods in this game in which both teams struggle to score. Let’s say Toronto 91-Miami 88.