Raptors vs. Miami Heat, Game 3 – Preview & 3 keys to victory

May 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside (21) bumps into Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
May 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside (21) bumps into Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The ultra-tight playoff matchup between the Heat and Raptors continues late this afternoon in Miami. What can the Raptors do to pull out a win?

We don’t know yet who’s going to win this series, but one thing is indisputable: the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat are evenly matched. Both games in Toronto were tied after regulation time and each team won once.

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Who is going to improve sufficiently to end the other’s season? The best way to answer that is by considering whether both teams are at their best. If each is playing as well as they can, then a ball that rolls off the rim late in Game 7 could decide the series, and my question is unanswerable.

May 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (7) leaves the floor for treatment of a cut lip after being called for a foul against Toronto Raptors in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
May 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (7) leaves the floor for treatment of a cut lip after being called for a foul against Toronto Raptors in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t think that’s the case; Miami appears to my eyes to be playing at maximum capability. Coach Erik Spoelstra has continued his first-round tendency to play his top seven people, and all but ignore the rest. He’s hoping for a quick end to this series because time is against him. I think he’s deeply concerned about his players’ health, in particular, the wonky knees of Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside.

Goran Dragic has been banged around, but doesn’t appear to be in the same danger zone I believe Wade and Whiteside are. Coach Spoelstra is being super-careful with the minutes of his backcourt stars. Dragic and Wade have played a total of 151 minutes while averaging 23 and 20.5 Points Per Game [PPG], respectively. The Raptors backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have played 173 minutes, averaging 12.5 and 21 PPG. More time, worse results – so far. Those two are odds-on to get better.

What must the Raptors do to re-take home court advantage this afternoon?

  1. Keep the pressure on Whiteside. I don’t understand why so many Raptors forget Jonas Valanciunas is on the floor. He’s 17 for 25 so far, and has missed one of six free throws. Get him the ball, and clear out. JV is quite capable of passing out of the occasional double team. But it’s more than JV. DeMar needs to challenge their big man. Whiteside did not seem interested in contesting a number of DeMar’s push shots on Thursday night, or perhaps the big man thought DeMar was going to the rim. That push shot looks like an effective weapon – keep using it.
  2. Lather, rinse, repeat – Dwyane Wade. He’s a Hall of Fame player, so the Raptors can’t shut him down offensively. But they can make his life difficult on the defensive end. Make him run into, or through, a series of screens. If Norman Powell can find his stroke, so much the better. He can stay on the floor, meaning DeMarre Carroll can concentrate on containing that accursed man Joe Johnson.
  3. Pressure the passing lanes. The Raptors built up a cushion in Q1 of Game 2 by forcing a huge number of turnovers.

Obviously, better shooting from Kyle and DeMar would render life in Raptor-land much easier, but that’s a hope, not a tactic. So let’s hope. Toronto 98-Miami 92.