What if the Raptors have to play without Valanciunas?
While Raptors fans were thrilled by the team’s win over the Heat in Miami, the joy was tempered by concern about an injury to emerging centre Jonas Valanciunas.
The Toronto Raptors scored a huge victory over the Miami Heat in game 3, but the victory came at a cost.
Center Jonas Valanciunas sprained his right ankle in game 3. While x-rays came back negative, he was too injured to return to the game, and it’s unclear if he’s available for game 4.
Valanciunas’ injury is particularly unfortunate because he’s played at a high level throughout the playoffs. The New York Times even ran a feature that noted the Lithuanian center’s development in its May 8 copy.
The Times story includes a quote from DeMarre Carroll, who told Valanciunas “if he will play as hard on defense as he does on offense, we will win this whole series.” Already a talented offensive player, JV has taken seriously Carroll’s challenge to impact games defensively.
Third on the team in points per game, Jonas is also scoring more efficiently than Toronto’s other stars. He’s scoring on 55% of his field goal attempts while DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have struggled to find their own shot. When Valanciunas is off the floor, the Raptors are shooting 3% worse from the field and scoring 4.1 fewer points per game, as the below data from NBA.com suggests.
| Toronto Overall | GP | MIN | FGM | FGA | FG% | PTS | +/- |
| 2015-16 Playoffs | 10 | 490 | 33.2 | 81.2 | 40.9 | 91.4 | -0.8 |
| Off Court | GP | MIN | FGM | FGA | FG% | PTS | +/- |
| Valanciunas, Jonas | 10 | 205 | 29.3 | 77.3 | 37.9 | 87.3 | -7.5 |
As Carroll noted, however, Valanciunas’ defensive impact may be more important to Toronto right now. The Raptors rank last in offensive efficiency of any playoff team that advanced past the first round, so they’re relying more heavily on defense to win. Interior defense has led the unit, allowing 36.6 points per game in the paint and rating third best in the playoffs behind only the Pistons and Spurs.
Valanciunas has defended down low well, as the following two tables suggest (data taken from NBA.com/stats).
Less than 10 feet
| Player | Team | Age | Position | GP | G | FREQ | DFGM | DFGA | DFG% | FG% | Diff% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | TOR | 24 | C | 10 | 10 | 71.30% | 3.5 | 7.7 | 45.5 | 58.6 | -13.2 |
Less than 6 feet
| Player | Team | Age | Position | GP | G | FREQ | DFGM | DFGA | DFG% | FG% | Diff% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | TOR | 24 | C | 10 | 10 | 50.00% | 2.5 | 5.4 | 46.3 | 63.8 | -17.5 |
In the less than 10 feet and less than 6 feet ranges, Jonas has held opponents to 13.2% and 17.5% worse shooting than their average. Further, when JV is off the floor, Toronto has allowed 104.2 points per 100 possessions compared to 99.4 when he’s on the floor.
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Valanciunas has scored efficiently while defending well. If the ankle sprain limits his effectiveness, Toronto could lose not only his offensive production and rebounding, but also his low post defense that’s been critical to their playoff success thus far.