There’s enough data to quantify how badly DeMar DeRozan has been shooting against the Heat. It’s not a pretty picture.
DeMar DeRozan’s offensive inefficiency is not news anymore to anyone following the 2016 NBA playoffs. A quick glance at his stats will show you just that. Paul George’s incredible defensive performance in round one was a big reason in slowing down DeMar. However, his continued struggles in round two are related to what he is doing or not doing, rather than the defense played against him.
Through three games against the Miami Heat, DeRozan is shooting an anemic 38.1% from the floor. Toronto has been able to overcome this to take a 2-1 lead in the series in part because of their success on the offensive glass. With Jonas Valanciunas being unavailable for the rest of the series, the Raptors stand to lose that advantage. The Raptors carry an offensive rebound percentage of 21.7 with Jonas on the court that drops to 10.6 with him on the bench.
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DeRozan leads the team with a 28.7% usage rate and this only stands to increase in Valanciunas’ absence. Conventional wisdom in the NBA theorizes that usage and efficiency are inversely related. Very simply put this means that a player scoring fifteen points on ten shot attempts a game will not score thirty points on twenty attempts per game because he will make a lower percentage of his tries.
DeMar’s high number of field goal attempts a game (21.0) this round has not necessarily been his Achilles heel. The greater issue for him has been his shot selection. DeRozan has not displayed the same relentlessness and ferocity in attacking the rim like he did in the regular season. A majority of his shots in the series have been mid-range jump shots. He leads the league in the Conference Semi-Finals with 13.3 FGA from this range and is converting only 42.5% of his attempts. By comparison, DeRozan has taken only 23 shots in the paint and has yet to try a three-pointer.
Not only is DeRozan attempting an alarming number of long twos, more than half of them have been forced with a hand in his face. He has attempted forty-eight shots at least ten feet from the basket and twenty-seven of them have been either very tightly or tightly contested. Adding to the degree of difficulty on his jumpers is the fact that almost all of them have come off the dribble rather than the easier catch and shoot variety. DeRozan has taken forty-two pull up jump shots while attempting only five directly after catching a pass.
On those few occasions DeRozan has found his way into the paint, he has largely settled for tough floaters in the lane. He is shooting 5/13 on floaters in the series. Hassan Whiteside’s length and shot blocking ability have been key deterrents to DeRozan’s desire to get to the front of the rim. He has been able to total only seven shots in the restricted area. That being said; with Whiteside out for the second half in game three, DeMar hoisted up seven of his eight shots from mid-range. If Whiteside misses any time in the series DeRozan has to take advantage of it and get back to his strength of scoring at the rim.
DeMar DeRozan is too talented to be putting up the numbers he has been posting in this series. He is a gifted scorer who has the ability use the tiniest slivers of space to make his way to the rim and score. He has also worked hard in improving his three point shot and has to trust in his hard work paying off when it counts. DeRozan will be counted on now more than ever by his team and if he is more judicious in his shot selection he can deliver.