Eastern Conference Finals: Experts & Vegas don’t think Raptors have a hope
By Graham Orr
The Toronto Raptors are heavy underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the eyes of experts and oddsmakers.
The Toronto Raptors enter the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers as a major underdog. The Raptors are entering the ECF for the first time in franchise history, with many fans not even old enough to remember playoff basketball outside of the first round of the playoffs. The Raptors took the longest route possible to the ECF, going to seven games in the first and second rounds against the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. Over those 14 games, the Raptors had an average +/- of +0.6 points, an incredibly small margin which places them 8th in the NBA, behind the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, and Los Angeles Clippers.
In contrast, the Cleveland Cavaliers are returning to the ECF for the second consecutive year, and any team featuring LeBron James is a disappointment if they don’t raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of the playoffs. The Cavs have marched through the first two rounds of the playoffs without losing a game, sweeping the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks. The Cavaliers have generally crushed their opponents so far, leading the league in average +/- with a +10.5 mark.
This matchup appears to be rather lopsided in the eyes of many “experts,” with every analyst from both ESPN and CBS Sports calling the Cavaliers to win the series. In fact, none of them even have the series reaching seven games, with most settling on the Cavaliers either sweeping the Raptors or winning the series in 5.
This one-sided view of the series is certainly shared by oddsmakers in Las Vegas as well. TeamRankings, a site focusing on sports predictions and data, currently considers a Cavaliers sweep over 10% more likely than the Raptors winning the series. The odds of the Raptors winning the NBA title range from around 33 to 1 up to 50 to 1. Considering there are only 4 teams left in the playoffs, and that the next lowest odds sit at 7 to 2 (Oklahoma City), the Raptors odds almost appear comically bad.
The recent histories of these two teams, both over the last 2 seasons and the last 2 playoff rounds, lead even the most loyal of Raptor fans to understand that the team faces an uphill battle against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have been here before, have a group of players who are playing extremely well in the postseason, and they have LeBron James. The Cavaliers will be upset this year finishing with anything less than a Championship, while Raptors fans were relieved and happy simply making it out of the first round.
The Raptors will not nearly have the same margin for error in this series as they have in the previous two if they want to compete. Quarters have to be closed out strongly, whether the team is trailing or leading. Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and others, will need to be on their A-games consistently. If the Raptors have a final possession to play for the win, as they did twice against Miami, they need to both draw up and execute plays that will get them victories.
Even with the odds stacked against them, the Toronto Raptors are exactly where they want to be this year, and no matter what the odds or experts may say, they have a shot at going to the NBA Finals. This team defends better than they ever have in recent memory, have an extremely strong second unit, and they have finally gotten the Playoff monkey off of their collective backs. It certainly won’t be easy, but the Toronto Raptors can prove the experts wrong in this series.
No matter what happens on the court, it is a perfect time for Raptors fans everywhere to enjoy the most important games the franchise has ever taken a part in, and to provide as much of a home court advantage as possible come Saturday. The North (or the Other) gets to match up with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Once the ball is tossed up tonight what the experts, pundits and oddsmakers have said is thrown out the window, and all that really matters is what happens on the court. I for one am extremely excited to see what our underdog Toronto Raptors can do on this big stage.