Patrick Patterson is the X-Factor against the Cavaliers
The Toronto Raptors ascended to a place where the franchise has never been this past Sunday. Despite the celebrations of making it to the Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history, Coach Dwane Casey knows there is still work to be done this season. “We are not done yet” he said to the gathered media after the game, “we still have another series in the Eastern Conference”.
The Raptors now await their toughest challenge in the playoffs; a matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Many, if not all, the best predictive NBA models available to the public give the Raptors a very slim chance of advancing to the NBA finals. For the first time in three years, Toronto will compete in a playoff series as the underdog. For them to overcome these odds the Raptors will no doubt need DeRozan and Lowry to produce at their All-Star level. Additionally, they will also need significant contributions from every player who sees playing time in the series.
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A player who the Raptors will continue to rely upon will be Patrick Patterson. Patterson has been one of Toronto’s most important players both in the regular season and the playoffs. The Raptors actually won two of their three match-ups against Cleveland this season and Patterson was a key reason why. In the three regular season games the Raptors were +30 with a Net Rating of +13.3 when he was on the court. On the flip side, his team was -46 with a Net Rating of -45.2 with him on the bench.
Patrick Patterson can be the proverbial “x-factor” for the Raptors because of his ability to impact the game both offensively and defensively.
On defense, Patterson’s ability to guard multiple positions could be pivotal for his team against the Cavaliers. He has had success this postseason guarding against a big physical wing in Joe Johnson, a quick seven-footer with range on his jump shot in Myles Turner and a bruiser in Ian Mahinmi. The Raptors will need this flexibility as they will ask Patrick to guard Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye and even LeBron James during the course of a game.
Patterson will be key in defending two of Cleveland’s pet plays: the pick and roll involving James and Love, and the pick and roll with Kyrie Irving and Love. Patterson has the speed to hedge hard on Irving and scamper back onto Love on his roll or if he decides to pop out to the three-point line. Toronto can also choose to switch the action with James and Love (the easiest way to guard a pick and roll) especially in late clock scenarios and trust in Patterson’s capability giving him a decent chance to stay in front of James.
He will also be needed to close out defensive possessions by securing a rebound. Tristan Thompson is relentless in his pursuit of the ball on the offensive glass and it will take multiple Raptor players to keep him from getting to the missed shots. On any possession where Bismack Biyombo (the player most likely to be guarding Thompson) rotates over to contest a shot in the paint, Patterson will be needed to slide down and put a body on Thompson to prevent him from getting the offensive rebound.
The Raptors will need Patterson to regain his shooting to touch from beyond the arc to optimize their offense. After hitting at least one three-pointer in every game against Indiana and shooting 41.7% from deep, Patterson did not make a three-pointer in five of the seven games in the second round converting on only 14.3% of his long-range attempts. If Patterson struggles with his outside shot it leaves the Raptors with only two three-point shooters (Lowry, Carroll) in their starting lineup.
Patterson’s value on offense goes beyond just his jump shot. Teams can have success against Cleveland by attacking Kevin Love and Irving on defense. Theoretically, this means having the two of them guard against a pick and roll should yield favourable results for the offense. Assuming Patterson is primarily defended by Love in the series, it behooves the Raptors to run the Lowry/Patterson screen and roll as much as possible. Here’s a second reason to use that as a go-to play on offense: Cleveland will likely trap the ball handler on plays where Biyombo is the screener on the pick and roll. This can be effective against Toronto because leaving Biyombo wide open on the short roll 18-20 feet from the basket poses absolutely no threat to the defense. The Cavaliers cannot do this on pick and rolls involving Patrick Patterson. Firstly he is well within his range if he gets the ball at the top of the arc and even if he decides not the take that shot he can dribble into the paint to either score or pass.
After not starting a single game in the regular season Coach Casey has started Patrick Patterson eight times in the playoffs. Toronto is 5-3 in those games and will look to improve upon that record. His “jack of all trades” skill set will be heavily relied upon to give the Raptors a chance to pull off a colossal upset in the Eastern Conference Finals.