Our in-depth look at the Southwest Conference continues; today, the Dallas Mavericks.
Last Season’s Record: 42-40
Players Added: Harrison Barnes, Quincy Acy, Andrew Bogut, Seth Curry
Players Lost: Jeremy Evans, Raymond Felton, David Lee, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Chandler Parsons, Charlie Villanueva
Rookies: Nicolas Brussino, Kyle Collinsworth, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jonathan Gibson, AJ Hammons
Coaching Changes: N/A
2016-2017 Record Prediction: 44-38
Team Ratings: 106.7 ORtg (11th in NBA), 107.0 DRtg (17th in NBA)
The Dallas Mavericks had an under-the-radar offseason. After striking out on early free agents, they signed Harrison Barnes and landed Andrew Bogut in a salary offload from the Warriors. Additionally, they picked up Quincy Acy and Seth Curry on bargain deals, further strengthening their bench.
Currently, the Mavs boast one of the strongest starting lineups in the NBA. Presuming they start: Deron Williams/Wesley Matthews/Harrison Barnes/Dirk Nowitzki/Andrew Bogut, Dallas will have above averaging shooting from point guard to power forward. Three of those starters, Barnes, Matthews, and Bogut, are staunch defenders with both Barnes and Matthews able to guard a variety of positions. Shot creation is another strength for these Mavericks, Deron Williams, though old, remains a reliable playmaker who posted a 2.52 assist to turnover ratio last season. Both Matthews and Barnes are reliable off the dribble and Barnes possesses a budding post game. Dirk’s offensive potency is nothing new; he continued his streak of excellence by averaging 1.07 points per isolation last season. Bogut’s years with Golden State have displayed his above-average abilities as a roll man and a passer. Bogut’s passing allows him to act as a conduit through which the offense flows. In Golden State this would manifest itself as motion from pick and roll to a shooter or cutter.
One of the greatest assets of this Mavericks squad is its lineup flexibility. Barnes’ ability to defend at power forward allows the Mavericks to run a small ball lineup. This lineup would consist of Curry/Williams/Matthews/Barnes/Nowitzki who would stretch any defense thin. With this group on the floor the worst shooter is Deron Williams, a career 35.7% three-point shooter. The main concern would be rim protection as both bigs in this lineup, Dirk and Barnes, are not good rim protectors.
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Carlisle’s coaching skill makes this flexibility even more exciting. His eight years with Dallas have resulted in seven playoff appearances; the one season they did not reach the post-season was when Dirk was injured for 29 games. Despite his absence the Mavericks were only four games out of the playoffs.
The Mavericks’ main loss coming into this season is Chandler Parsons, who missed nearly 33% of regular season games during his tenure. His replacement, Harrison Barnes, has a much better health record. Through his first three seasons in the league he missed five games total, his first season with a major injury, last season, caused him to miss 16 games. Since his return, Barnes has looked completely healthy in playoff and Team USA appearances.
Still Barnes’ ability to be focal point of a team’s offense remains unclear. The synergistic nature of Golden State’s offense makes it difficult to discern just how talented Barnes is individually. We know he is an efficient shooter, but how much of that is reliant on the looks generated by teammates. Last season, only 1.2% of all his threes made were unassisted. The question we are left with is, how does Harrison’s efficiency change with volume? Without meaningful sample size it is difficult to tell statistically. The best we can do is look at Harrison’s skillset: strength, athleticism, shooting, and passing IQ. In a vacuum that does appear as the skillset of a number one option, but we have to wait and see if Barnes can put it all together.
Overall, this year’s Mavericks team is a clear step up from last season. I expect they will once again make the playoffs, but Barnes’ adjustment to his new role will hold the team back from finishing ahead of the Grizzlies.