The NBA’s Central Division, with sound teams like the Detroit Pistons in it, won’t be a pushover for anyone.
Pistons Record Last Season: 44-38
Players Added: Jon Leuer, Boban Marjanovic, Ray MacCallum, Ish Smith
Players Lost: Joel Anthony, Steve Blake, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jodie Meeks, Anthony Tolliver
Rookies: Henry Ellenson, Michael Gbinije
Coaching Changes: N/A
2016-2017 Record Prediction: 47-35
Team Ratings: 106.1 ORtg (14th in NBA), 105.5 DRtg (12th in NBA)
Commentary
Underscored by an All-Star and All-NBA season by Andre Drummond, coach Stan Van Gundy led his Pistons to new heights, snapping a six-year playoff drought. Though their season ended with a sweep by the Cavaliers, the Pistons fought hard and kept these games close, showing their promise.
These Pistons are a spiritual successor to Van Gundy’s Magic teams, which focused on surrounding Dwight Howard with shooters at every position. While these Pistons are not the elite snipers that Turkoglu, Nelson, or Lewis were, the system functions in a similar way.
Centre of attention
Much like Orlando-era Dwight, Andre Drummond is a very proficient roll man. He averaged 1.1 points per roll last season, ranking in the 71st percentile. Though, he does not have the post presence that Howard has. Drummond had 405 post-up possessions last season. He scored 0.73 points per post-up, ranking him in the 27th percentile. A closer look at the numbers reveals what Drummond’s issue is. He shot 314 hook shots last season, with a field goal percentage of 43.6%. Compared to the players who were top five in post possessions, Andre shot almost 100 more hooks than any other player, all of whom were more efficient than him. This is indicative of a larger problem with his post game, a lack of go-to moves and touch around the rim. With a limited repertoire consisting of spins into hook shots, Andre becomes much easier to defend in the post.
Drummond is only 22, and has lots of time and room to grow before he enters his physical prime. It would be remiss to analyze Andre’s offensive game without discussing his abysmal free throw shooting. Drummond shot just 35.5% from the line and was regarded as a liability in late game situations by coach Van Gundy. “It’s just — even to bring him back in the last two minutes, your options are limited. It’s a problem. It really is,” said Van Gundy.
Luckily for Drummond and Van Gundy, the NBA updated their away-from-the-play fouls this summer. Now, in the last two minutes of any quarter, hacking away from the ball results in a free throw and retained possessions. Additionally, the practice of jumping on a player’s back to intentionally foul is now automatically treated as a flagrant foul. While these changes do address some of the concerns regarding Hack-a-Shaq, Drummond still couldn’t, for instance, try to post-up late without being immediately fouled.
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Drummond’s most valuable asset, however, may be his athleticism. According to sports performance lab P3, Andre is the most explosive big man in the NBA. He ranks well above average in vertical, lateral quickness, and speed. This is the key to his rebounding dominance. Of all players who played over 100 minutes last season, Drummond ranked first in total rebound percent. This skill comes in handy for pick and roll point guard, Reggie Jackson. When Jackson and Drummond run a pick and roll, if the opposing defenses choose to hedge or double Jackson, he can cough up any shot knowing that Drummond will be under the basket to clean up the miss.
Backcourt a strength
Reggie Jackson, in his first full season as a starter, rose to the occasion. He scored 18.8 points per game (ppg) with a 35.3% three point percent and added in 6.2 assists per game (apg). His backcourt mate, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP), also took steps forward. KCP scored 14.5 ppg while improving his shooting percentages from all over the floor, except from beyond the arc. Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris were two of the most versatile forwards last season. Tobias ranked in the 96th percentile for post-up scoring and shot 37.5% on three pointers with Detroit. Morris ranked in the 83rd percentile for post-up scoring and shot 36.2% from beyond the arc. Having two veritable inside-outside big men diversifies Detroit’s offense significantly.
Better D needed
Though they were the 12th best defense last season, the Pistons have a lot of room for improvement. Mainly, Andre Drummond has to become a better rim protector. His athletic gifts indicate that he should be one of the league’s best, but last season he allowed opponents to shoot 52.4% at the rim. These rim protection issues were exacerbated by Tobias Harris’ defensive issues. As an undersized power forward, Harris often struggles against the physicality of opposing power forwards. By bulking up and adjusting to his new role, Harris will improve in that regard. Additionally, his 6’11” wingspan will prove invaluable for defending larger players. Marcus Morris was an effective defensive player last season, making his opponents shoot a field goal percent 2% lower than average and prompting Raptors’ head coach Dwane Casey to say, “With the defensive disposition he brings, it’s not like you’re just going to catch the ball down there and go to work on him in the low post.” As for the guards, they represented to ends of the spectrum. Reggie Jackson was not an effective defender, allowing opponents to shoot, on average, 3.6% better from the field. KCP, on the other hand, was one of the league’s best defensive guards. He garnered votes for the All-Defense teams and while his defensive stats aren’t gaudy, he did still decrease opponent’s field goal percentage by 1.7% despite always matching up with the better guard.
Marcus Morris was an effective defensive player last season, making his opponents shoot a field goal percent 2% lower than average and prompting Raptors’ head coach Dwane Casey to say, “With the defensive disposition he brings, it’s not like you’re just going to catch the ball down there and go to work on him in the low post.” As for the guards, they represented both ends of the spectrum. Reggie Jackson was not an effective defender, allowing opponents to shoot, on average, 3.6% better from the field. KCP, on the other hand, was one of the league’s best defensive guards. He garnered votes for the All-Defense teams and while his defensive stats aren’t gaudy, he did still decrease opponent’s field goal percentage by 1.7% despite always matching up with the better guard.
Positive roster moves
New addition Jon Leuer looks like a good fit for Van Gundy’s system. Last season he shot 38.2% from beyond the arc, though he remains a below-average defender. With Ish Smith, the Pistons find their first reliable backup point guard since Brandon Jennings was last healthy in 2014. Ray MacCallum will be adequate in filling third-string point guard duties. Finally, Boban Marjanovic can provide an efficient scoring and staunch rim protection off the bench. Solely based on his size, Boban is incredibly difficult to guard and a good rim protector. Boban’s size also limits him, he struggles to defend at the perimeter.
Rookie Henry Ellenson was touted as the next big “stretch four,” though he has yet to display any shooting touch in an NCAA or Summer League setting. Ellenson also has poor lateral quickness, which foreshadows poor pick and roll and help defense. The Pistons’ other rookie, Michael Gbinije, has shown promise as a defender and playmaker in his time with the Nigerian national team. The only thing holding Gbinije back is his age. Already 24, Gbinije is close to his physical peak.
Conclusion
The Pistons’ success will be predicated on the growth of their young stars. In order to recapture the magic of those past Orlando teams, Andre Drummond needs to develop a dominant post game. Still, the Pistons’ cohesion sets them apart from their divisional opponents and lands them at number two in the Central Division.