Central Division Power Rankings: #3

The Indiana Pacers gave the Raptors a serious tussle in last season’s playoffs, and look tough again this season.

Last Season’s Pacers Record: 45-37

Players Added: Aaron Brooks, Jeremy Evans, Al Jefferson, Jeff Teague, Thad Young

Players Lost: George Hill, Jordan Hill, Solomon Hill, Ty Lawson, Ian Mahinmi, Shayne Whittington

Rookies: Georges Niang

Coaching Changes: Nate McMillan takes over as head coach, Frank Vogel moves to the Orlando Magic.

2016-2017 Record Prediction: 42-40

Team Ratings: 104.6 ORtg (24th in NBA), 102.9 DRtg (3rd in NBA)

The Pacers come into this season having lost much of their old identity. Defense was the foundation of last year’s Pacers squad. The perimeter defense of George Hill, Solomon Hill, and Paul George combined with the paint presence of Ian Mahinmi is what made Indiana the third best defense in the NBA. This individual excellence was intensified by head coach Frank Vogel.

From those key five, only one, Paul George, remains with the Pacers. A dynamic scoring small forward, Paul will again be the heart of the Pacers offense. This season, however, he is surrounded mostly by scorers. Jeff Teague, Thad Young, and Al Jefferson are all new additions who have demonstrated individual scoring proficiency. Larry Bird, president of the Pacers, has expressed a desire for a faster offense and it shows in his free agency and trade pickups. As the team shifts its focus from defense to offense, it was only fitting that they also make personnel changes.

A somewhat puzzling decision was promoting former assistant coach Nate McMillan to the head coaching job. McMillan-led offenses (early 2000s Supersonics and late 2000s Trail Blazers) have, on average, been 27th in the league based on pace. Although he is adept at running an efficient offense, his teams finished as the 12th best offense, on average. As he was an assistant coach under Vogel for the last three seasons, McMillan would be able to carry over Vogel’s defensive schemes.

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With the spotlight on the Pacers’ offense, there are two big questions to answer: do the Pacers’ new players fit together? And can Paul George be consistent?

Last season, George’s month-by-month splits are fairly erratic. In November, he was fantastic. George averaged 29.5 ppg while shooting 49% from beyond the arc. He followed this with a poor showing in December, where he averaged 21.4 ppg and shot 37.5% from the field. In the playoffs, George had a strong showing against the Raptors, where he averaged 27.3 ppg and 4.3 apg. This inconsistency has plagued Paul George’s career, though with so many other shot creators, his output may stabilize when under less duress.

Despite Nate McMillan’s history of slow offenses, the roster constructed before him is perfect to run in transition. Thad Young and Myles Turner are mobile bigs who can beat their opponents up the floor for easy dunks. Ellis, George, and Teague all possess the ball handling and passing abilities to move the ball up the floor. The Pacers’ skillset fits this brand of basketball over a traditional half court offense.

In half court sets, Teague will operate mainly as a spot-up shooter and secondary playmaker, following the mold set by George Hill. Teague shot a career high 40% from beyond the arc last season, which bodes well for his new role. However, his poor finishing around the rim last season raises some concerns. Teague ranked 25th in field goal percentage at the rim among starting point guards. While this was a down year for him, it is worrying to think about how Teague will score at the rim in a Pacers offense that does not have the luxury of space found in Atlanta.

Though Monta Ellis is the presumed starting shooting guard, it may be to the Pacers’ benefit to let him operate as a sixth man. A poor shooter from anywhere but the paint, Ellis is most effective with the ball in his hands. Allowing Monta to run the bench unit’s offense and starting CJ Miles in his place would relieve some of the congestion in the starting lineup.

Thad Young will look to get the majority of his offense out of the pick and roll and from post ups. He ranked in the 75th percentile on post-ups last season and in the 19th percentile as a roll man, though this can be partially attributed to the Nets’ subpar guard rotation.

Rounding out the starting lineup is sophomore Myles Turner. Already great in the paint and post, shooting 60.9% and 57.8% in each respectively, Turner’s growth as a shooter and roll man will be crucial to the Pacers’ offense. In his rookie season, Turner shot 42.5% on long twos, whereas the league average is 39.8%. If Turner can take a step back and extend into three-point range, the Pacers will have a bona fide inside-outside scorer that can add much needed shooting to their offense.

After many organizational and player changes, the Pacers are primed to take a step back this season. They sacrificed an elite defense in the hopes of creating a fast paced, hyper-efficient scoring machine, but instead settled on a hodgepodge of individualistic scorers. Still, Paul George’s superstar status buoys the Pacers and brings them to the number three spot in the Central Division.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com and basketball-reference.com.