Ya can’t keep everyone – Raptors face tough decisions
By Brian Boake
Kyle Lowry needs only to have a season as strong as this past one to have every team in the NBA interested in his services. Can – and should – the Raptors keep him around with a fat raise?
The publication of an interesting piece about Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry brought into sharp focus an issue we’ve been writing about here. Specifically, ESPN’s Mike Mazzeo quotes Lowry’s agent in regard to next year’s salary. Kyle will opt out of his contract, as is his right, and take a look around for a monster payday. That’s no surprise to you and me.
Lowry is eligible for a raise to $33.5 million, and a 5-year total of $196M. While one assumes Kyle will give the Raptors the first chance to make their pitch, he’d be foolish not to listen to other offers.
Let’s suppose Raptors big dog Masai Ujiri decides to pony up. Here’s a possible salary table as a result:
| NAME | POSITION | SALARY $M-rounded |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | Point Guard | 35.5 |
| DeMar DeRozan | Shooting Guard | 27.7 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | Centre | 15.4 |
| DeMarre Carroll | Small Forward | 14.8 |
| Terrence Ross | Small Forward | 10.5 |
| Cory Joseph | Point Guard | 7.6 |
| Lucas Nogueira | Centre | 2.9 |
| Jakob Poeltl | Centre | 2.8 |
| Bruno Caboclo | Power Forward | 2.4 |
| Delon Wright | Guard | 1.6 |
| Pascal Siakam | Power Forward | 1.2 |
| Norman Powell | Shooting Guard | 1.0 |
| Patrick Patterson AND/OR Jared Sullinger | Power Forward | 0 |
| Draft Pick(s) | ?? | 4.0 |
| TOTAL | 127.4 |
A few footnotes:
- Contracts like Bruno’s and Lucas’s are team-optional. I’ve decided for our purposes they will be around.
- I’ve added Patrick Patterson and Jared Sullinger at the bottom so you didn’t think I’d forgotten them. Neither has a contract for next year.
- While there are many hopefuls (Jarrod Uthoff, Fred VanVleet, etc.) at Raptors training camp, I’m not granting any of them a contract.
- Draft pick(s) values are a guess.
Without breaking a sweat, the Raptors have crashed through the salary cap and the luxury tax (anticipated to be $102M & $122M, respectively). Bear in mind: the retention of Kyle and DeMar means the Raptors are committed to paying two players over $62M in each of the next three years. The rest of the roster gets the remaining $60M.
Whether or not MLSE’s board concurs with the financial pain associated with the re-signing of Kyle is beside the point. To me, this situation is impossible. Masai Ujiri would have no flexibility whatsoever.
And how about the worst-case scenario? Either of Kyle or DeMar suffers a career-ending injury…the Raptors are still on the hook. If you don’t think I should be such a Gloomy Gus, have a look at the Miami Heat situation with the unfortunate Chris Bosh. They owe him $75M, and he’s likely never to play again.
Lowry on the move?
Here’s what I think is likely to happen this season with Kyle. Should the Raptors enjoy another strong season, meaning that they stake a strong claim to the #2 or #3 seed in the Eastern Conference, Lowry will remain past the trade deadline in February. I can’t imagine Masai trashing a chance to return to the EC Finals by moving Lowry.
However, if the Raptors barely have their noses above .500 around mid-January, look for Lowry to be on the move. Perhaps by then, my Okafor scenario will have come to fruition, and Kyle can head home to Philadelphia.
That result would be better for the Raptors in the long run. Otherwise, Kyle may be gone for no compensation at all.