Raptors need Valanciunas to step up his game

The Raptors enter 2016-17 with high hopes. Young players often improve, and the team needs its starting centre to be one of those.

The Toronto Raptors have set a high bar for themselves. The 2015-16 regular season and playoffs were the most successful in franchise history by a substantial margin. Fans of the team are salivating over the possibility of an even more impressive run this season.

For that to happen, many pieces must fall into place. Obviously remaining injury-free is paramount, but assuming the Raptors’ key personnel all play 70 or more games, what else has to happen? I suggest the emergence of Jonas Valanciunas is near the top of the list.

My thoughts on this matter were stimulated by a list of the NBA’s top ten centres. JV’s name wasn’t on it, which is of course entirely subjective and nothing to worry about (the basketball press has little idea what to make of the Raptors). Regardless, I started wondering whether JV’s absence is a fair reflection of his place.

Comparisons

Let’s start with a fundamental statistic, Player Efficiency Rating, or PER. Last season, JV ranked fifth among qualified centres at 22.63. The leader in this category was Boban Marjanovic, who averaged 9.4 Minutes Per Game [MPG], meaning he barely qualified for inclusion. By contrast, our departed backup, Bismack Biyombo, racked up a 14.91 PER, which is fractionally below a mythical average player’s number.

PER is acknowledged by its creator, the gifted John Hollinger, to be an imperfect stat because of its overemphasis on offense. Here’s the algorithm, if you’re interested. JV gets a mild slap-down in another Hollinger synthetic stat, that being Defensive Rebounding Rate, where he’s 14th.

JV on his team

Wherever JV ranks among opposition centres is moot compared to his standing among Raptors’ options at the spot. Simply put, there aren’t any. Lucas Nogueira looks marginally better than he did last year, which is saying precious little. He’s not ready to challenge for starter’s minutes. Jared Sullinger’s name has been bruited about as a possible 5-man in small lineups, but there’s no evidence to provide comfort with that idea. I’d be opposed until Jared shows sufficient lateral quickness to be useful as a help defender. Jakob Poeltl is a 20-year-old rookie.

More from Raptors Rapture

• Scottie Barnes talks Raptors expectations after bumpy 2022-23
• Raptors’ Dennis Schroder completes Cinderella story, wins FIBA World Cup with Germany
• 3 players Raptors could replace OG Anunoby with at trade deadline
• NBA insider praises Raptors’ hiring of “star” Darko Rajakovic
• Raptors fans will love Markquis Nowell’s insane confidence on Instagram

Patrick Patterson often was coach Dwane Casey’s choice to close out wins last year. If I were JV, I’d take that as a personal insult. JV’s 26.0 MPG ranked 17th among qualified centres, and will need a bump to 30 MPG if the Raptors are to develop.

Conclusions

Jonas is 24, and entering his fifth NBA season. While I’m often one who counsels patience with a player (particularly big men), JV has to make his move. The Raptors cannot take the final step into championship contention without a top-rank centre. Valanciunas can be that man, if he becomes a force in the defensive paint through four quarters while maintaining his above-average skills as a scorer.

Valanciunas’s contract is not onerous, and he sounds like a happy man in Toronto. That’s all well and good, but if he’s treading water by Christmas, I’ll be formulating Trade Proposals.