NBA 2016-17 forecast: Southeast Division

Apr 25, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (1) talks with guard Dwayne Wade (3) during a timeout in the second quarter against the Charlotte Hornets in game four of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 25, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (1) talks with guard Dwayne Wade (3) during a timeout in the second quarter against the Charlotte Hornets in game four of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports /
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ATLANTA HAWKS

Last season: 48 – 34

This season: 41 – 41

Atlanta thinks they ended up in the same place by swapping Al Horford, who signed with Boston, for Dwight Howard. I’m not with them on that conclusion or other ones.

How about the promotion of Dennis Schroder to starting point guard, effected when incumbent Jeff Teague was sent to Indiana? That move may work out eventually, but this season could be lost while it does.

Mar 6, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) grabs a rebound over Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) in the fourth quarter at Air Canada Centre. The Rockets won 113-107. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 6, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) grabs a rebound over Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) in the fourth quarter at Air Canada Centre. The Rockets won 113-107. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

Kyle Korver’s 3-point shooting percentage tumbled last season to under 40% for the first time in seven years. The man is 35 – I hope he can bounce back for the Hawks’ sake, because he can’t do much else than shoot anymore.

They still have Paul Millsap to do everything but sell beer in the stands, and Kent Bazemore is capable and versatile. Howard isn’t on his last legs. Unlike Miami or (shudder) Brooklyn, I don’t believe the Hawks are fated for a long-term tumble, but their chances of a playoff appearance are a coin flip.