Why can’t Raptors win close games?

Championship contending teams don’t always play well throughout the game. They may start slow and look sluggish to begin with. But great teams always do one thing well. They close out tight games and grind to wins. This isn’t something the Raptors have been able to do. Back to back losses to sub .500 teams when the Raptors are leading going into the 4^th quarter are unacceptable.

More worryingly in their last 15 games the Raptors are 1-9 in their last 10 games categorised as clutch. These are games that are close in the 4^th quarter (point difference of 5 in the last 5 minutes). For the season, the Toronto raptors are the 22^nd most clutch team in the league arrocrding to NBA.com stats (http://stats.nba.com/teams/clutch-traditional/#!?sort=W&dir=-1) The reasons for this are complex but the main problem is coaching.

We need better coaching

Kyle Lowry has seen enough. He told post-game reporters “something gotta give, something gotta change”. In response to questions, he said “I have an idea, but I’mma keep my mouth shut, keep it professional”. A nuanced look reveals that this is clearly a dig at Dwayne Casey. This is corroborated by former Raptor Assistant coach Tom Sterner. He told TSN radio, “he’s pointing it at Casey… the last two possessions were scrambled possessions”

The Raptors final offensive possessions in the last two games have been bizarre to say the least. This shouldn’t be the case for a team that ranks 3^rd in offensive rating in the NBA. The problem is with Dwayne Casey’s play calling. In the loss to the Pistons, Casey called 9 isolation plays for DeMar DeRozan in the 4^th quarter. DeMar is a quality player who can hit shots to win games, but to call four straight isolation plays to close the game is not ideal.

Nov 25, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) shoots during the fourth quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Toronto won 105-99. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

At one point, with 36 seconds left on the shot clock, DeRozan receives the ball at the top of the key. Dribbles, dribbles again and then dribbles one more time. This sequence lasts 21 seconds, he passes to Lowry who pulls up for a contested fade way shot that doesn’t go in. Pistons ball.

A similar play run in the last 2 minutes for DeRozan as shown below against the Timberwolves. DeRozan gets a screen from Lowry and gets Tyus Jones switched onto him. Andrew Wiggins slips the screen and goes to contest a tough floater which misses. The issue with this play is that the Wolves know he is going to the paint. He is then crowded by Karl Anthony towns (7 Foot) and Wiggins (6’8). A floater isn’t going to work in this situation.

https://3ball.io/plays/demar?playId=0021600790_469

Can you see the trend here? The last possessions are entirely predictable. Opposing head coaches know exactly what the Raptors will do. They’ll run a DeRozan isolation play. This allows opposing coaches to scheme for this. Defenders can help and pack the paint leaving DeRozan with a tough shot which is contested. It’s as if Casey forgets about players not called Lowry and DeRozan in the 4^th quarter. Players guarding the other 3 Raptors can help whoever DeRozan is duelling to make it a harder shot.

How can this be rectified?

There are reasons for optimism that this can be rectified. The Toronto Raptors through the first 3 quarters play well. They are usually leading going into the third quarter. This is due to the fact that they are averaging more assists in the first three-quarters (4 assists) compared to the 4^th quarter and overtime where they average 2.5 assists. When the ball is moving around this creates confusion for the defence. This leads to a better look for the shooter. If the ball sticks then it became easier to defend.

We rectify this by better late game play calling. Instead of just letting DeRozan or Lowry take turns to run isolation plays. We can use some of our other players. DeMarre Carroll told reporters in the locker room that “we’re so used to DeRozan and Kyle handling the ball so we sit and watch, where earlier in the game we’re kind of playing”. They need to utilise other players, force mismatches and let Lowry attack the pick and roll. DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas are not superstars but are solid players. In the lost to the Pistons, DeMarre Carroll had 15 and Jonas had 17. Running more sets for them will diversify the offense and make the Raptors harder to defend.

The NBA season is a long grind and they have had players injured. The Raptors have slipped to 4^th seed and are looking behind their shoulders nervously. The Hawks are half a game behind them. The signing of Serje Ibaka is clear evidence that the Raptors are rolling their dice. With Kevin Love of the Cavaliers out for 6 weeks. This provides Toronto with the opportunity to climb the standings and aim for the number 1 seed. This will be in vain if the Raptors don’t fix their clutch issues. They need to do this quickly in time for a long playoff run.

More from Raptors Rapture