Patrick Patterson’s contract will be tricky for Raptors
By Brian Boake
The Raptors have a few months to figure out who’s staying and who’s going. Patrick Patterson’s contract is expiring – what should Masai Ujiri do with him?
The Toronto Raptors will be heading into a challenging off-season, with decisions to make about a number of players. In particular, the team has 3 major contributors with whom to negotiate: Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka (assuming he plays as well as we all think he can), and Patrick Patterson.
While I’m cautiously optimistic that both Lowry and Ibaka will be resigned to king’s-ransom contracts, the future of 2-Pat isn’t as clear. He’s tied for third with DeMarre Carroll in minutes per game (27.3), so he retains the confidence of coach Dwane Casey. However, he’s missed all but 7 games (of 25) since the calendar switched to 2017, as his left knee refuses to heal.
In the often-cruel world of NBA contracts, players with chronic injuries don’t get paid much, or at all. I’m going to proceed as if 2-Pat will be OK, which may turn out to be wrong.
How to define value?
Patterson’s value is not easily quantifiable. He’s only once broken into double figures for a season in scoring, and isn’t close in rebounding or anything else. Yet he’s consistently logged 23+ minutes per game [PG] for all 3 teams he’s played for during his 6+ NBA seasons.
There’s one stat which his agent will brandish like the Ace of trumps at contract time. That’s 2-Pat’s remarkable plus/minus results, which this season finds him 19th at plus_299. He’s in prestige company between J.J. Redick and Kyrie Irving. Patrick has been plus ever since arriving in Toronto; this season he’s averaging plus_7.5 PG.
In short, when he’s on the floor, the Raptors score more points than they surrender. That’s wonderful, but why?
Patrick’s defensive skills are considerable. He’s a rare combination of size and mobility, which allows him to harass ball handlers on the perimeter (even in single coverage!) yet peel back to cover his man in the paint. Patrick isn’t a great rebounder, but he boxes out well, meaning JV or Bebe can grab the board with less competition.
Offensively, Patrick can be useful once he’s established his 3-ball. If he hits a couple early, his defender must close out on him. 2-Pat can be very effective using a ball fake before dribbling into the paint for a short jumper. This season, his 3-point percentage is 36.3%, which is crazy-close to his career average.
Watch him late, not early
The arrival of Serge Ibaka is going to mean a significant shuffle of minutes for many Raptors, and that includes Patrick more than most. Assuming Ibaka starts at power forward (hardly a bold proposition), 2-Pat will be coming off the bench. He’s started only 7 games this year, so that won’t be a shock.
What I’ll be watching for is 2-Pat’s usage late in games. Will he and Ibaka become the front court of a small-ball lineup trying to maintain a 7-point lead going into Q4? Don’t be at all surprised if that’s the case.
Should Patrick solidify his status as “glue guy” (I term I don’t like, though I haven’t got a replacement), AND the Raptors end the season strongly, then we can assume he’s going to have a handsome payday.
That said, 2-Pat is a backup power forward with a knee problem. While he may have a secret admirer somewhere (as Amir Johnson did when he hopped it to Boston on the first day of free agency), I suspect the more likely scenario sees him accepting another 3-year deal from Masai, this time totaling $30 million. I’d make the third year a team option.
Patrick is a striking example of a player who’s more than his stats. He’s frequently expressed how much he loves Toronto, and is a quality individual. I hope Masai keeps him around.