Raptors first-round opponents: Miami Heat (Pt 4 of 5)

NOTE: THIS IS PART FOUR OF A FIVE-PART SERIES OUTLINING EACH 1ST-ROUND PLAYOFF OPPONENT OF THE RAPTORS. EACH PART WILL BE RELEASED OVER A SPAN OF FIVE DAYS.

If you have not read the series’ introduction, the link is as follows:

RELATED STORY: Assessing the Raptors’ potential first-round playoff matchups

My Eastern Conference seed projection: 9

I’m putting the Heat just outside the playoffs at 9. A crucial win versus the Hornets was good news but the Eastern playoff race from seeds 5 to 9 are extremely tight. A hard-fought loss to Toronto hurts their chances. I see them falling behind largely due to the absence of Dion Waiters and an overall lack of leadership. I mean, nobody predicted Miami to be competing for the playoffs anyway so…

Last 10 W/L record: 5-5

Every win counts for each team in this written series. This record should read 7-3 as Miami embarrassingly dropped successive games versus the Denver Nuggets and woeful New York Knicks. I mean, come on Miami. You can’t expect a playoff seed while dropping games of that kind.

Regular season record vs. TOR: Raptors lead 3-1

These two teams have faced off a grand total of four times, more than enough for both to thoroughly understand one another’s strengths, weaknesses and tendencies. All four games have shared a similar tone: animosity, aggression and very loose referee whistles.

William Lou, news editor for TheScore summed it up quite well:

Best player and X-factor

Best Player: Hassan Whiteside

Whiteside broke onto the scene of the NBA as the next freakish 7-foot athlete. A kid who had so much to prove brought a ruthless, sometimes troublesome attitude to the Magic City and was embraced for it. A pure blocking machine and a tremendous force inside, Whiteside quickly joined the conversation as one of the league’s premier centers.

Insert cringe here.

Whiteside was on the Raptors’ summer league team just before his breakout season. The Raptors took a flier on him, he impressed but was released shortly after. He signed with the Miami Heat and the rest is history.

X-Factor: James Johnson

James, James, James. Oh how us Raptors fans miss you, James. Now a serious candidate for 6th man of the year and MIP, Johnson took the league by storm this year. Incredibly, he improved in every single aspect of his game.

James Johnson was loved by Toronto’s fans and undoubtedly by Heat fans alike. Most Raptor fans knew Johnson could put it all together given the right opportunity. Let’s keep it real. He was shunned by Dwane Casey. It doesn’t matter anymore. The guy is flourishing in Florida and it’s been great to see.

Oh, and he still hasn’t gotten over his love for destroying Pistons players:

How the Heat matchup vs. Toronto

TOR Projected Starting Lineup: Lowry, DeRozan, Carroll, Ibaka, Valanciunas

MIA Projected Starting Lineup: Dragic, Waiters, McGruder, Babbitt, Whiteside

Miami would certainly start with McGruder sticking on DeRozan and have James Johnson get his fair share of looks on Deebo. Dragic and Lowry would dance in the playoffs for the 2nd time in as many years while Waiters (if healthy) would see PJ Tucker and Carroll. A second chance at seeing Whiteside versus Valanciunas would be great. When fully healthy, both teams exhibit well-balanced rosters with Toronto obviously leading in star-power.

The key for the Raptors is to:

1. Drive and kick. The Heat not only allow the most 3-point attempts in the NBA, they allow the most opponent makes. They’re a good defensive team (4th in D-rating) but their weakness is perimeter defense.
2. Get ready to GRIND it out. The Heat love operating at a slower pace and happen to be extremely aggressive. Toronto cannot be afraid to foul them. No, seriously. Miami is the NBA’s worst team in FT percentage shooting a horrid .705% as a team.
3. Win the turnover battle. The Heat are disciplined offensively. They rarely commit turnovers as a team (ranking 8th in the league), which is a testament to quality coaching by the Erik Spoelstra-led staff.
4. I usually stick to 3 keys here but after last night’s game, this has to be said. Toronto must exploit that 1/2 pick and pop with Lowry and DeRozan. Dragic on DeRozan? Guaranteed bucket. Miami cheats on the screen, they leave Lowry open. Pick your poison.

To conclude this series, the Indiana Pacers are up next.