Raptors need to lose to Cavaliers tonight – here’s why

The regular season’s final game is here, as the Raptors visit Cleveland to face a confused band of Cavaliers. The Cavs have lost 7 of their last 12 – should Toronto take advantage?

When considering this game, I must take into account the effect of winning on both teams. Put another way, if a victory provides no bump in the standings, then why trot out your best guys for what is in effect an exhibition match?

A win matters to Cleveland, but not to the Toronto Raptors.

There is no scenario in which Toronto can move up or down from third place in the Eastern Conference final standings. Should the Raptors lose and the Washington Wizards defeat the Miami Heat, the Wiz and Raps would conclude with 50-32 records. The tie will be broken in favour of Toronto by dint of winning the season series against the Wiz. Flipping that around, a Toronto victory is of no use. Both the Cavs and Raps close with 51-31 records, and Cleveland takes second because they beat our guys 3 times in calendar 2016.

Monday night’s results, in which the Cavaliers blew their second straight Q4 lead and lost in OT, while the Boston Celtics held off the suddenly feisty Brooklyn Nets, created an interesting scenario. Boston is the master of its own fate; if they defeat Milwaukee, the EC #1 seed, and home court advantage, is theirs.

Conversely, if Boston loses and Cleveland wins, both teams sport 52-30 records, and it’s the Cavs who are the repeat champs. They won 3 of 4 versus the Celtics.

OK, so why do I claim the Raptors would prefer to lose? Because Toronto must face Cleveland eventually, and I believe our team is better off doing so in Round 3 than Round 2.

Let’s quickly walk through the playoff format. There are four series in Round 1: A (seed #1 versus seed #8), B (2 vs 7), C (3 vs 6) and D (4 vs 5). In Round 2, A winner plays D winner, and B winner plays C winner. The winners of those series clash in the Eastern Conference finals. If Cleveland is A, then our team (C) can avoid them until we’ve already got eight wins under our belt.

[20-second timeout: There’s also the hope of the Cavs getting upset in the first or second round.  That’s more than a pipe dream given the degree to which Cleveland has struggled recently.]

I assert that our players need more time to gel. Kyle Lowry is still finding his shooting form. Worse, he and Serge Ibaka have had some crossed wires which led to turnovers. Those you can afford in regular season games, but not in the playoffs.

So, I’m pulling for a Cavs win coupled with a Celtics defeat.

One would assume Cleveland would be making every effort to effect the same result. Home court advantage is extremely valuable. Yet the Cavaliers list LeBron James as “out”, while Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are “questionable”. If you can make sense of that, please send a Comment.

Here’s what I hope we’ll see from the Raptors.

1. A maximum of 20 minutes of floor time for DeMar DeRozan…he doesn’t need a tune-up.
2. No more than 25 for Kyle Lowry…our point guard is still feeling his way around a bit, particularly with his passing. He and Serge Ibaka need to get on the same page, and fast.
3. An opportunity for Lucas Nogueira…I suppose I’m being stubborn (Dwane Casey clearly has removed Bebe from the rotation in favour of Jakob Poeltl) but I believe Bebe can be valuable in the playoffs.
4. Something positive from DeMarre Carroll…I don’t care what it is, and I suspect neither does he.
5. A few Jonas Valanciunas baskets from 18 feet…he should be able to shoot over almost anyone the Cavs match him up against. Floor-spacing can occur inside the 3-point arc, as well as outside.

The playoffs are almost here, Rapture Nation. Fasten your seatbelts.