Pascal Siakam flashed signs of being a useful player in his rookie season. What does he need to do to improve?
According to 82games.com, the probability that the 27th pick in the NBA draft turns out to be a star player is roughly six per cent. A bench player or bust? Around 65 per cent.
Fortunately for Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, the theory of probability posits that the outcome of an event cannot be determined before it occurs.
Following a solid regular season debut and D-League Finals MVP honours, the odds of sustained NBA success seem like they’ve improved. Now he just has to follow these three simple steps:
Develop a softer ‘touch’
So far, the NBA version of Pascal Siakam has demonstrated a propensity to stay close to the cylinder on offence. In fact, the majority of his shots in 2016-17 (50+ per cent) were in the restricted area. Upon closer look, this tendency makes a lot of sense, as things got a bit tougher for him the further he drifted away.
The Raptors rookie shot converted a measly 28 per cent on shots that came from 10-14 feet. Making fewer than one-third of your shots when you’re a step in from the free throw line won’t cut it.
Siakam will never fool anyone with a Steph Curry impression, but, he does possess a decent jumper (41 per cent on 83 attempts). So it’s not the ability to finish as much as getting used to putting up shots in traffic.
Make them pay in and around the lane. Easy points, man.
Become an elite rebounder
In 55 NBA games, Siakam’s offensive (8.3) and defensive (16.8) rebounding percentage—the percentage of available rebounds grabbed—hardly jumped off the page. Not only did they mirror his D-league stats, they were roughly similar to the 2017 edition of Milwaukee’s Thon Maker. He’s a wannabe three-point shooter who plays much further away from the basket offensively.
Siakam was a consistent double-double player in college and looked capable of doing so on the NBA stage in October-November of last year. If he makes rebounding his niche, he can carve out a Kenneth Faried-type role at the next level.
Resist the move to small forward
Siakam possesses the size and ability to switch and defend multiple positions. This is a good thing. On the flip side, his slow shooting mechanics indicate that this versatility does not transfer to the offensive end.
A small forward also needs to move the ball and find open shooters before the close-out comes. Think Andre Iguodala or Trevor Ariza.
Siakam’s assist to turnover ratio was 0.52 in his rookie season, an indicator that the ball is not really moving once he it hits his hands.
While he runs well, his skill-set, size and shot mechanics profile less as a small forward than as a crafty four. Pascal could develop the ability to space a bigger centre and punish smaller teams on the glass.
So what’s next?
Much like the rest of the Raptors’ roster, Siakam’s future is tied to what happens this summer. If the band (Lowry, Ibaka, Tucker) gets back together, then Siakam projects as third on the depth chart. He’s behind Ibaka (the starter) and Tucker (who can play SF or PF – depending on if the Raps go big or small).
A stacked squad would likely mean another year of seasoning in the “G”-League for the rangy forward.
If Lowry leaves, then Siakam will get his chance. Neither Ibaka or Tucker will stick around for a rebuild, so the sophomore would likely hear his name called in Opening Night intros after “Starting at Power Forward…”
If that happens (and it very well could), will Siakam be able to keep the job – permanently?
The odds say it’s unlikely, but the theory of probability says stay tuned.
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