Analytics show Raptors improved from last year. Is that enough?

Advanced Statistics Do Not Paint the Whole Picture. A true picture of the Raptors requires data plus the ability to understand intangibles.

I am on the fence in my feelings towards advanced stats and analytic movement, which is the latest craze in the NBA. On one hand, advanced stats can shed light on a player’s and team’s strength/weakness which can be crucial in scouting reports.

It also allows diehard fans to dive deeper into comparisons of generational talent. With stats such as win shares, player efficiency and usage, it allows the creation of better rooted arguments when making your case on the ever popular Jordan-LeBron debate with your buddies at the bar.

On the other end, analytic movements often paint a biased picture. It allows for certain stats to be favored that show a player in a ever positive light while not accounting for intangible skills, talent and traits that are often immeasurable through computer analysis.

In this way, analytics can be misleading much like watching the scene of Narcos where Pablo Escobar gives money to the poor and forming an opinion on him solely on that.

But here’s an argument based on Analytics that the Raps have improved and will continue to do so.

What Analytics Say for the Raptors: Already Have Pace, Need Space

However, all the advanced stats paint a positive picture for the Toronto Raptors. In an era of pace and space, teams that push the ball experience the greatest success.

An idea that was so absurd at the turn of the century when proposed by Mike D’Antoni with the Phoenix Suns, has now become the blueprint to an NBA championship.

The Raptors improved their pace from 92.9 to 94.7. More possessions means greater chances at scoring. One might make a case that this does not bode well in terms of better shots or more points, However, with this improved pace the Raptors have also improved their Offensive Rating from 110 to 112.3.

To put this offensive improvement into even greater context, the Raps barely had a 100 Offensive Rating in the first year Dwane Casey took over.

This means that the Raps have been able to play faster in this era of run and gun while still getting better scoring opportunities and taking care of the ball than they did last year.

Finally, teams with championship success the highest level are elite on both ends. Rarely do poor defensive teams reach the finals. Only teams that have had deep post-season in the last decade are this year’s 2016-2017 Cleveland Cavaliers team and the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000-2001.

Raptors show improvement

The Raptors were able to improve their defensive rating 105.2 to 107.8. Improved defense can only be a good thing no matter how you cut it. It means more stops, forcing more turnovers and better shots on the other end.

Thus, although some stats might not be too useful such as a role player’s per 48 minutes stats, stats such as pace, offensive rating and defensive rating are useful and relevant. It demonstrates that the Raptors have improved on both sides of the ball and have continued to make strides as a championship contender.

It also shows that the Raps have established a quality pace comfortably around the league average. And while pace can still improve and I anticipate it will, space from lack of three pointers continues to be a larger problem.

The Raptors boasted 8.8 3PM/G which is 21st in the league. They also posted an embarrassing 18.5 APG which is the worst in the league. This means that the Raptors have trouble getting and making quality looks. This is likely due to a number of reasons.

Lack of good three point shooters, too much balling stopping from DeMar and Kyle and lack of quality sets to free up shooters, are all playing factors. This means the need to acquire reliable shooters, trusting the three point shot as opposed to the inefficient mid-range jumper and creating better sets to allow for open shots.

Dwane Casey recognizes the Raptors need for better shooting through acquisitions and putting the time to work on threes in the off-season. Thus, there is no doubt the Raptors will continue to close the gap on Cleveland. This will allow for the King’s reign to quickly come to an end and make way for a new King from the North.

I made an analytical argument as to why the Raps improved from last year despite regressing on paper. I also highlighted their biggest weakness that must be addressed this off-season. Stay tuned for my next post where I make a case for their improvement in the 2016-2017 from the year prior with more tangible reasons.

Let me know your thoughts on the Analytics movement and whether in shines light on important issues for the Raptors or if it is a bunch of baloney.