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Raptors win forecast shows downward trend continuing

By Brian Boake

TORONTO, ON- APRIL 18: The flag guys sprints around the logo as the Toronto Raptors win the second game of their first round series against the Indiana Pacers 98-87 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. April 18, 2016. (Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON- APRIL 18: The flag guys sprints around the logo as the Toronto Raptors win the second game of their first round series against the Indiana Pacers 98-87 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. April 18, 2016. (Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images) /
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The Raptors are predicted to drop from 51 to 43 wins. Who says so, and why?

While Yours Truly isn’t nearly ready to announce his NBA forecast for 2017-18, others aren’t so bashful. As my colleague Chris McKee has already noted, the Toronto Raptors are forecast by ESPN (using a pixie-dust formula called RPM, or Real Plus-Minus) to win 43.4 games. The large drop from last year is being attributed to the departure of Patrick Patterson.

All right, so RPM isn’t that bad, as synthetic statistics go. I’m a believer in plus-minus data, and Patrick Patterson has been a leader in that department since he arrived in Toronto. However, his play had tailed off this season, and I wasn’t surprised about how little effort President Masai Ujiri made to retain 2-Pat’s services. I’m sure he’ll help OKC.

For me the greater loss is that of P.J. Tucker. He performed exactly how I thought he would upon arriving from Phoenix at the trade deadline. Tucker is one of those players you need to watch to appreciate. He’s a hustler, a boxer-outer, a hard-nose. The Raptors are without an edgy player at the moment; they are too nice. The squad is better with a Tucker or a Charles Oakley on the floor and in the locker room.

A drop of 8 wins?

All that wailing and gnashing of teeth aside, the Raptors have many reasons to be optimistic, or at least not down in the mouth. The core group is back, and the kids are one year older. Norman Powell will be offered greater freedom. Delon Wright is the backup point guard at the moment, a task I think he can handle.

Among the veterans, Serge Ibaka will have the time necessary to fully acclimate himself into the Raptors scheme. Jonas Valanciunas has been under the microscope, and will be highly motivated in training camp to make trading him an impossibility.

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – JULY 10: Patrick Patterson
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – JULY 10: Patrick Patterson /

I don’t need much in the way of guts to suggest the Eastern Conference is surely weaker than last year, a supposition RPM concurs with. The final East playoff squad is projected to be the Detroit Pistons, with 35.1 wins. [C’mon guys…35.1? Can you just round up or down to whole numbers?]

Out West, 35 wins will find you badly outside the playoff picture. The Raptors don’t play the Western powerhouses (Warriors, Rockets, Spurs) as often as they play each other.

In other words, the Raptors will play the Nets more often than the Rox will. That fact alone will bump our record.

Coming soon…a happier prediction

We’ll start to roll out our forecasts shortly. I’m not as glum as the ESPN guys are. That’s all for now.

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