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Vegas forecasts Raptors to win 48.5 games this season

By Brian Boake

CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 3: Dwane Casey of the Toronto Raptors talks to the media during a press conference after Game Two of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the 2017 NBA Playoffs on May 3, 2017 at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photos by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 3: Dwane Casey of the Toronto Raptors talks to the media during a press conference after Game Two of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the 2017 NBA Playoffs on May 3, 2017 at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photos by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Raptors are thought well of by the allegedly knowledgeable folks who run the big bet shops in Las Vegas.

As the start of the 2017-18 NBA season creeps ever closer, forecasts are inevitable. You’ll be reading mine over the the next few weeks.

The Westgate Superbook people in Lost Wages have released their over/under wins total, and have decided the Toronto Raptors‘ number is 48.5 (every team has a .5 number so there can’t be any “spoiled” bets, e.g., if the Raptors win 48 on the nose, and you’ve bet the over, you lose).

Overall, their win guess-timates are sound. Obviously, we’re most interested in the Raptors, and a number in the high forties for our favourite team offers credibility to the rest of their picks.

For instance, the Brooklyn Nets are at 28.5. I think that’s a tad optimistic, but far more feasible than Jeremy Lin’s prediction of a playoff position.

TORONTO, CANADA – DECEMBER 20: Jeremy Lin
TORONTO, CANADA – DECEMBER 20: Jeremy Lin /

The Vegas people have jumped vigorously on the Boston Celtics’ bandwagon, posting them at 56.5. That’s a huge number for a team with four players remaining from last year’s roster. There’s clearly a strong belief in the ability of coach Brad Stevens to integrate their new stars like Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving into a winning combination. I’m not so sure.

The West is best

I’m impressed with their Western Conference numbers. For instance, I’m on the side of those who think the Golden State Warriors won’t win 70 (Superbook has them at 67.5); not because they can’t, but because it doesn’t help them. You’ve going to see more and more teams resting their top players, and GS doesn’t need 70 Ws to nail down the West’s top playoff seed. Remember the TV spot of last season, in which a young man notes “73 wins…and no ring?” The Dubs don’t want to let that happen again.

Raptors coach Dwane Casey won’t enjoy the same luxury as GSW’s Steve Kerr. Toronto top guns Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can’t be off the floor for long if our team is going to win. I’ve been troubled time and again over the past few seasons as to why the Raptors can’t blow people out. Sitting our best men for the final quarter more often would be fine with me. That’s a season-long challenge directed at the second unit men.

I’ll be doing my own over/under for every team when I release my forecast (minus the .5 stuff – we’re not a betting site). For now, I’ll tell you that I’m under on the 76ers. Superbook has them at 43.5 wins, which is probably a solid number for next season but not this one. The Philly guys haven’t played together, or in many cases, at all (Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz). I’m waaay under.

As for our Raptors – under as well. Rats.

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