The Raptors, buoyed by their late comeback W against the Lakers, next take on the Blazers. Portland has been a hard place for Toronto to find wins, and won’t be easy this time either.
The Raptors continue their extended bonding exercise, otherwise known as a long road trip, with a stop in Portland. The Trail Blazers have a lengthy injury list, though their top-line talent is healthy and will present as most difficult to defeat.
Like the Raptors, the Blazers rely on an excellent pair of guards to lead their attack. Damien Lillard and C.J. McCollum have exemplified consistency over the past few seasons, and both are off to fine starts this one. You can mark them down for at least 45 points combined.
However, they give up a bunch of points as well. Neither is particularly “handsy”, nor do they draw charges or pull down rebounds to the degree of a Kyle Lowry. Did you know DeMar DeRozan is tied with Otto Porter for the NBA lead in steals with 2.8 per game [PG]?
Lillard is listed as the point guard, though he’s not enough of a distributor for my taste. McCollum averaged 2.2 turnovers to 3.6 assists last season in 80 games, numbers which surely disqualify him from playing the point.
The Blazers know who they are, and what they can do. Portland would rather outscore its opponents than outdefend them. So far this young season, they have not been held under a century even in defeat. They sit second in point differential at plus_13.1; their two losses were by a total of four points.
Jusuf Nurkic, who was essential in Portland’s playoff drive last season after arriving from Denver, is scuffling so far. His minutes PG are down to 26, but his fouls are up to 3.7. He’s a huge yet athletic man, so why does he average a mere 8 rebounds?
Their other starters, Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu, are complementary pieces. Neither should be taken for granted. They both can chip in the occasional bucket and defend well. Aminu is their top shot-blocker.
3 keys to Raptors victory
- Accept the occasional blow-by on the perimeter. Portland sits second (behind Orlando…it’s been an odd season so far) in 3-point shooting percentage, with a gaudy 43.9. While that’s not a sustainable rate over 82 games, it certainly is in one. Our defenders, including our big men, must force Lillard and McCollum off the arc and towards the bucket. [20-second timeout: The Raptors sit third (and Portland is next) in allowing opponents’ 3-ball makes. In other words, both teams have been strongly pressuring shooters into misfires. Will we see a lot of attempts, but not a lot of makes, from beyond the arc? Another head-scratching data point…]
- Get help! This is the corollary to my first point. Portland’s bigs will attempt to pin ours, thus providing an easy lane for their drivers. Our other defenders must collapse in a hurry. I expect to see a lot of Delon Wright and Jakob Poeltl, both of whom have the quickness and length to tighten the paint.
- Hold their rotation players to a draw. Portland has been getting points from unheralded Pat Connaughton, and Ed Davis leads their team with 9.7 rebounds PG. Our second unit didn’t have much fun against the Lakers, and needs to regain its confidence.
Prediction
So much depends on the Raptors shooting, which has been disappointing to date. I’m leaning towards a last-basket-wins slugfest.
Raptors 116 – Trail Blazers 113