Raptors [4-2] at Nuggets [3-4]: Preview & keys to victory

The Raptors visit the Nuggets for Game 5 of their 6-game road trip. Denver is being called one of the league’s biggest disappointments. Will our guys kick them while they are down?

The Toronto Raptors have displayed resilience in their last pair of road victories, first by storming back against a weak group of Lakers, then displaying fierce defence to keep a high-scoring Trail Blazers team at bay. To keep their friend Mo Mentum on side, Toronto must play a shot-happy Denver Nuggets team with the same through-the-lineup toughness they displayed in Portland.

Denver is not enjoying the new NBA season so far. With the exception of the Washington Wizards, they have played weak teams yet are below .500. An offence I expected to be at or near the top of the league in points per game [PG] is sputtering and ranks 18th. They allowed Kristaps Porzingis to punish them for 38 points in a loss at New York which ended their four-game Eastern swing.

Having six players who average double figures certainly provides a coach some comfort that he’s not likely ever to get blown out. However, the Nuggets need one of these people to step up. Paul Millsap seems like the best bet, as he’s a couple of buckets PG below his established norm. Gary Harris got a monster raise over the summer, and has been solid though not spectacular. Jamal Murray is scuffling; the Nuggets have a right to expect more than an 18.2% rate from deep.

Their leader in several major categories is giant center Nikola Jokic. His startling improvement from a #41 pick in 2014 was the reason Denver could dump the higher ranked Josef Nurkic. Jokic is their top scorer and rebounder. He’s also their assists leader, which should cause much consternation in Denver’s coaching ranks. It’s a bonus to employ a center who’s an excellent passer, but what are your point guards up to?

3 keys to Raptors victory

1. Control Jokic. He’s mobile, smart and can shoot from beyond the arc. What to do? Go right at him when we’ve got the ball, and double him on D. He’s not a shot-blocker, probably because Denver wants him to stay out of foul trouble and on the floor. But if the Raptors penetrate the paint consistently, he’ll have to react somehow. Lucas Nogueira may get pushed around by Jokic, but Bebe’s length will give the hefty Serb problems.
2. Take advantage of depth. Even with the uncertain status of Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka, the surprising depth the Raptors have displayed can be a huge advantage. The Nuggets aren’t getting much value from Kenneth Faried, Trey Lyles or former starter Emmanuel Mudiay.
3. Make life miserable for their ball-handlers. The Raptors sit fifth in steals (did you see OG Anunoby against Portland – wow) and should certainly be able to harass the young Nuggets.

Prediction

Denver is a nasty place for visiting teams. The thin air can wreak havoc on players not familiar with its effects. Still, Dwane Casey has enough assets at his disposal to keep everyone at full strength (and lungs). I sure hope we get our big men back soon.

Raptors 107 – Nuggets 103