Which “advanced” stat should Raptors fans watch most closely?

There is no shortage of noisy stats about the NBA’s teams and players. Which quiet one does this Raptors fan plan to examine most often?

In the mad dash to evaluate the fanciest new synthetic statistics, Yours Truly has been lapped by the field. I’m skeptical about whether true insight can be gained by looking at the latest algorithms, rather than looking at the games.

However, I’m not interested in being a Luddite, nor do I wish to snub the hard work of others smarter than me. I’ve been looking at the advanced stats for some time in hope of discovering which one(s) should we Toronto Raptors fans be most concerned with.

I can’t recall ever seeing such a huge disparity between the first- and second-place teams in a synthetic stat as I did today. [20-second timeout: Labeling a stat a synthetic is not a disparagement; it simply means it’s different from counting stats by the introduction of a formula and the merging of several counting stats. So free-throw percentage is a counting stat, while PER [Player Efficiency Rating] is a synthetic.] The Golden State Warriors enjoy a margin of 5.6 points over the Orlando Magic in Effective Field Goal Percentage [eFG].

SALT LAKE CITY, UT – NOVEMBER 3: DeMar DeRozan

eFG posits an overweight to 3-point shooting, for the unarguable reason than a trey is worth 50% more than a regular field goal. The Raptors are trying to become more like the Warriors and less like their past selves. Toronto’s culture shift is supposed to lead to more 3-point baskets and less isolation play. Although we’ve been tearing out our hair at the number of missed open looks, our team’s stats are actually respectable. The Raptors are tenth in eFG at 52.4. That’s a fraction behind the Miami Heat, the only top-ten squad on this list with more losses than wins.

Which stats says “wins” most clearly?

That’s what I’m looking for – a stat or stats which points to wins and losses (the top three teams in Pace all have losing records). The success of Warriors basketball over the past few seasons, and this one so far, has created a revolution in how NBA teams build their rosters. Guess who were 1-2 last season in eFG? None other than the championship finalists, the Warriors and Cavaliers. Toronto was 12th, while Orlando was 29th.

The Raptors have not entirely bought into the pace & space concept. Had Masai Ujiri and his staff done so, we would have seen a teardown this summer. Instead, DeMar DeRozan has been tasked with finding shots from further away, and using “drive & kick” more. Whether this gradualist approach can work remains to be seen. Should Norman Powell or someone else stake a firm claim to the small forward position by making more shots, our chances of improvement increase dramatically.

eFG is not the only synthetic I’ll be looking at regularly. For instance, the Conference leaders are Golden State and Boston, who are 1-2 in Net Rating. But eFG will be the stat I look at first.

There is no shortage of noisy stats about the NBA’s teams and players. Which quiet one does this Raptors fan plan to examine most often?

Which stats says “wins” most clearly?

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