Raptors & Goldilocks principle: How many rotation players are “just right”?

The Raptors are using almost all their players every game. Can that continue, and should it?

Toronto Raptors coach Dwane Casey has not shied away from innovation this season. His team is averaging 31.7 3-ball attempts per game [PG], compared to last year’s 24.3. If our guys can simply match the success rate from the current 33% to 36.3%, which is how we finished 2016-17, the innovation will prove a definite success.

Those additional long shots can’t happen if the shooter isn’t free, and that can’t happen without ball movement. The Raptors average 297.7 passes PG, with last season’s squad finishing at 274.7.

These are welcome changes, though not for me the most interesting. Coach Casey has played virtually everyone on the roster a significant number of minutes, to an extent I’m not sure I’ve seen before – from any team.

Team President Masai Ujiri has stated a goal of the organization is to win games and develop players, at the same time. Easy to say – dreadfully difficult to do. I don’t know how much longer Casey will continue his democratic ways; perhaps until the first losing streak.

I’m interested to figure out which members of the roster should remain major minute hogs, and which will remain in sweats, their only exercise being towel-waving.

Time to get specific

Let’s get the easy answers out of the way. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan seem to have pushed through whatever early-season sluggishness was affecting them. That said, neither player is getting as many minutes as last year. Jonas Valanciunas is on the floor at game’s end, so the positional battle at center is over. Serge Ibaka is playing just over half a game, which seems about right. Norman Powell has been more effective lately, though his minutes are vulnerable to poaching. [Update: Norm is injured.]

The non-starters (or “rotation” in NBA jargon) are the biggest beneficiaries of Casey’s willingness to experiment. Consider Delon Wright, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl, who are playing about 25% more this year than last. Someone has to pick up the minutes created by the departures of Terrence Ross, DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker, Patrick Patterson and Cory Joseph.

Lucas Nogueira is also seeing more of the floor and less of the bench, though his propensity for drawing fouls may hinder his progress. I hope not; his shot-blocking alone makes him valuable, and he has some offensive room to grow.

TORONTO, ON – NOVEMBER 07: DeMar DeRozan

OG Anunoby has presented a pleasant problem after he joined the roster much sooner than expected. Our rookie can play, but how much is enough? The temptation may be to sit him more, given the nasty chunk of games the Raps are going through. But we won’t know his reaction to adversity unless he’s on the floor.

What about Fred?

I’m most baffled with the amount of confidence Casey shows in Fred VanVleet. If I felt “warm & fuzzy” about even one element of Fred’s game (demon defender, excellent at drive and kick, whatever), then I could understand. But he’s an undersized point guard with a tendency towards turnovers who’s a mediocre shooter. Delon is far from a finished product, but his offensive upside is at least that of Fred, and he’s long and mobile. What am I missing?

Time to wrap it up. I hope our rotation people continue to play well enough so that both Kyle and DeMar can hover around 34 minutes PG. Injuries caused by fatigue can thwart the best efforts of coaches, and our team will have difficulty overcoming the loss of either. I’d like more JV and Bebe, with fewer minutes for Serge. OG hasn’t shown us his limit yet, so let’s crank up his minutes gradually. C.J. Miles blows hot and cold, though he’d have a better chance to shine if one of his rotation mates would demonstrate a consistent 3-point stroke. Poeltl and Siakam are not easy talents to pigeonhole. The PT they are receiving now seems about right. If Jakob started to show an ability to hit mid-range jumpers I’d crank up his minutes. I still would like to see Pascal at small forward.

I don’t expect to see a significant tightening up of the minutes for some time yet. If I were in Dwane’s shoes, I’d tell Fred he’s some distance behind Delon, and that he needs to find a specialty. Otherwise, I wouldn’t change much for now.

[all data courtesy www.nba.comstats & current as of November 11, 2017]

The Raptors are using almost all their players every game. Can that continue, and should it?

Time to get specific

What about Fred?

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