Raptors’ Dwane Casey should be Coach of The Year candidate

The Raptors’ only Coach of the Year was Sam Mitchell in 2006-07. This season, Dwane Casey has already shown enough to warrant serious consideration. Here’s why.

The Toronto Raptors maintain their status as the least-publicized contending team in the NBA. Even the San Antonio Spurs, because of their astonishing two decades of success, are in the discussion of possible champions more than our team.

Yet if you throw enough buckets of cold water (or in this case, win enough games) on a sleeping man, he’s got to pay attention eventually. Here’s a detailed look at the Raptors’ success from an analytics-oriented source, in which particular notice is taken of the positive change in the team’s offense from last season’s (and the one before, and the one before that…) tedious P & R, and isolation plays.

Count me among those who gravely doubted the ability of Dwane Casey to change with the times. During his Toronto tenure, which began in the lockout-shortened season of 2011-12, he has watched as the NBA has changed. Indeed “changed” isn’t a strong enough word; the league has been revolutionized from a defense-first mentality to one in which the goal is to find as many outside shooters as possible, then give them carte blanche to fire away.

Here’s a cliche you don’t hear anymore: “Never trade big for small.” If anything, it’s been flipped.

Casey’s history

Our head coach made his reputation as a defensive specialist, winning an unexpected championship ring as an assistant with the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks. He became instantly famous after accepting the Raptors gig by dropped a boulder outside the dressing room as a reminder to “pound the rock” without respite. Now that his key personnel has matured, and the work-hard-every-day mentality has been successfully imbued, we don’t hear so much about the silly rock.

Instead, we’re treated to much more elegant basketball. The Raptors have never been so pleasing to the eye as this season. They are averaging 289.8 passes Per Game [PG] compared to last season’s 273.4. [20-second timeout: One must be careful with assumptions about stats, i.e., it doesn’t follow that more passes is a direct vector to success. The Atlanta Hawks (8 wins-24 losses) make the most, followed by the Boston Celtics (25-9) and the Brooklyn Nets (11-19). Good luck finding a pattern there.] For Toronto, more passes has led to more assists: 30.0 PG compared to 18.5 last season, which was dead last.

Toronto attempts an average of 31.5 3-balls PG; last season…24.3. Taking shots is one thing, making them is another. The Raptors have regressed their percentage from 36.3 in 2016-17 to 35.4, a statistical blip which I expect to improve assuming DeMar DeRozan’s recent spate of fine shooting from deep continues. The rate is similar, but the quantity made isn’t – 11.2 PG this year to date, 8.8 PG all of last.

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DeRozan changes with the times

DD is the man on whom so much scoring responsibility rests. He, and to a lesser extent Kyle Lowry, have been asked to dial down their isolation tendencies. Both have responded positively. A survey of DeMar’s personal stats last year compared to this reveals some remarkable change. He’s added one assist and .6 of made 3-balls, and in fewer minutes.

The above tweet admirably summarizes why Dwane Casey should be a CoY candidate. He has found a formula in which young-player development and wins are compatible. No other top team rolls a 10- or even an 11-man rotation like the Raptors.

Our team has been fortunate with injuries so far. Delon Wright, Norman Powell, Lucas Nogueira, and now C.J. Miles (“dental procedure”? – I don’t like the sound of that) have missed games. However, our main guys have been healthy. Should they get banged up, our kids have had sufficient seasoning to step into bigger roles.

All of this positive development has occurred without sacrificing Casey’s beloved defense. The team boasts a 104.3 Defensive Rating, sixth in the league. Meanwhile, the Offensive Rating is 113.4, which is fourth. Toronto ranks third in point differential PG with plus_8.9, behind Houston and Golden State (or the other way round – they are both plus_10).

all stats courtesy of https://stats.nba.com/ , unless otherwise noted

Is the Raptors success to date sustainable, or a Bitcoin-style bubble? Consider ultra-respected FiveThirtyEight’s view. Have a look, and here’s a hint: they project our chances of making the NBA Finals as second-best among Eastern Conference teams (yes, ahead of those green guys).

To sum up…

Dwane Casey has:

• embraced the “new” NBA
• created an advanced offensive scheme out of thin air
• induced his veterans to accept change, including less playing time
• shown faith in young players, and helped them all improve
• achieved all of this without sacrificing defense

If that’s not enough to convince the NBA trade press of Casey’s fitness for Coach of the Year, then nothing will.