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Bucks [19-15] at Raptors [24-10]: Preview & 3 Keys to Victory

By Simon Neuwelt-Broder

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK- DECEMBER 29, 2017:
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK- DECEMBER 29, 2017: /
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The Bucks feature an MVP candidate and just pulled off a road win against the Thunder – something the Raptors couldn’t do. Now they roll into the ACC for a New Year’s Day rematch of last year’s first round.

Hello 2018! The Raptors will ring in the year with a New Year’s Day game at home against the dangerous Bucks. The Bucks are coming off of a road win in Oklahoma City – a feat the Raptors weren’t able to pull off earlier this week – and riding a mini two-game winning streak.

The Raptors know all too well how much of a handful the Greek Freak can be. And Milwaukee’s posse of swarming bigs created all sorts of problems for DeRozan and Lowry in the first round of last year’s playoffs. But the Bucks have changed their identity a little this season with the November 7 acquisition of Eric Bledsoe from the Suns. Bledsoe has become a focal point of the Bucks’ offense, averaging 18.2 points per game since the trade, good for 3rd on the team in that span. They don’t play quite as big, relying more on outscoring opponents.

MILWAUKEE, WI – DECEMBER 28: Giannis Antetokounmpo
MILWAUKEE, WI – DECEMBER 28: Giannis Antetokounmpo /

Most Valuable Freak

After his strong showing in last year’s playoffs, Giannis Antetokounmpo has taken his game to a new level. He’s transformed himself into a bona fide MVP candidate – second in the league in points per game and eighth in rebounds. Along with Bledsoe, he’s joined by Khris Middleton, who is averaging a career-high 20.5 PPG. Since the Bledsoe acquisition, last year’s Rookie Of The Year Malcolm Brogdon has been moved into a bench role where he’s remained productive. The only other notable member of the Bucks’ bench is the looming three-point threat of Mirza Teletovic.

While the Bucks are coming off a road win versus the Thunder, they’re generally a weaker team on the road (7-9). They have a subpar DRtg (19th) and an overall negative point differential, which doesn’t point to a particularly good team. Even in the Thunder game, the Bucks built an enormous lead in the first quarter and watched it slowly evaporate. After OKC tied it in the dying seconds, the Bucks had to rely on a controversial last-second Giannis drive to pull out the victory.

Milwaukee, WI – DECEMBER 19: The Milwaukee Bucks bench celebrates during the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on December 19, 2017 at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)
Milwaukee, WI – DECEMBER 19: The Milwaukee Bucks bench celebrates during the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on December 19, 2017 at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Young Bucks

Milwaukee is young, big, and good. But maybe a playoff rematch is exactly what the Raptors need to wake up from their holiday doldrums. If the good Raptors show up – and not the 1-2 team from last week – then they have a good chance of defending their home court and extending their preposterous home record to 14-1. But this is also exactly the kind of game where the Raptors can’t afford a New Year’s hangover. A Bucks team coming off consecutive wins against the two Western Conference contenders is not to be taken lightly.

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The Bucks are in that huddle of Eastern teams that are playoff-bound, but seem worlds behind the top three. Milwaukee’s Twitter hashtag is #EnergyandEffort. It seems suited to a young, bad team rather than a contender. It doesn’t exactly inspire fear in serious opponents. To many, it’s a sign that the Bucks aren’t ready to take the next step just yet. Many think that Jason Kidd has taken a young team as far as he can and a new coach will take the Bucks to the next level. It’s an interesting thought, but more than anything it points to a team that is still putting the pieces together.

3 Keys to a Raptors Victory:

  1. Contain Giannis. Giannis hasn’t been good this year – he’s been great. In addition to his eye-popping traditional numbers, the advanced stats are kind to him. By both win shares and PER, the Greek Freak ranks third in the league. If the Raptors can use some combination of Siakam/Ibaka/Anunoby to slow him down and force the rest of the Bucks to beat them, they’ll be in good shape.
  2. Good DeMar. After a stellar month capped by a Player of the Week award on Christmas Day, DeRozan has come crashing down to earth. Wes Matthews and Andre Roberson almost completely shut him down in back-to-back road losses. Then he followed that up with a ho-hum 25-point performance against an atrocious Atlanta team. If DeMar can get back to nailing some threes and dominate his matchup, the Raptors will be in good shape.
  3. No Hangover. New Year’s Eve is one big party and the Raptors have the weekend off. On Boxing Day in Dallas, we saw what can happen when their mind is on other things. It’s key that the Raptors show up to this game ready to go to battle from the jump. They can’t afford to get sloppy on defense, especially against a team featuring a player who is almost impossible to contain anyway.

Prediction: I think this will be a tight battle. But with the Raptors holding home court and needing a strong win after a lacklustre week, I see them squeaking this one out. Raptors 112 – Bucks 108.

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