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Miami Heat [22-17] at Toronto Raptors [28-10]: Preview and 3 keys to victory

By Mike Bossetti

Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (0) tries to score as Utah Jazz's Derrick Favors (15) defends in the fourth quarter on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 at the AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Fla. The Miami Heat defeated the Utah Jazz, 103-102. (Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/TNS via Getty Images)
Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (0) tries to score as Utah Jazz's Derrick Favors (15) defends in the fourth quarter on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 at the AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Fla. The Miami Heat defeated the Utah Jazz, 103-102. (Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/TNS via Getty Images) /
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After a three-game road swing, the Raptors return home for the second night of a back-to-back against the red-hot Miami Heat.

Half-way through last season the Miami Heat were 11-and-30. The team looked lost, and their was real consideration to blow it up. No one could have predicted what would happen next. The Heat flipped the script, went 30-and-11 the rest of the season and barely missed the playoffs.

This season, after a slow start, the Heat have built on last season’s ending and currently sit in 5th place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat enter Tuesday’s game against the Toronto Raptors winners of four-straight, winners of 7-of-10, and playing better than at any point so far this season.

Offensively, the Heat struggle at times. The team ranks 3rd from the bottom in points per game and ranks in the bottom half of the league in both field goal percentage and turnovers.

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This is due largely to the team’s lack of a go-to scorer. Hassan Whiteside is a great player and skilled offensively but has never been the type of low-post threat you can dump the ball into consistently for back-to-the-basket post-ups. Meanwhile, their best perimeter threat, Goran Dragic, is a capable scorer but never the type to score in volume.

While this team is not great offensively, they do compete on the defensive end. Coach Eric Spoelstra has gotten the roster to buy-in on the team’s frenzied, effort first scheme. Miami does a great job running shooters off their spots and funneling all penetration to Whiteside, a premier shot-blocker.

The game is the second night of a back-to-back for Toronto, the type of situation Miami preys on. The focus will have to be their from the opening tip if DeMar DeRozan and company want to pull-out a victory against Spoelstra and Miami’s island of misfit toys.

ORLANDO, FL – DECEMBER 30: Goran Dragic
ORLANDO, FL – DECEMBER 30: Goran Dragic /

Three Keys to Victory

  1. Get to the line – According to Cleaningtheglass.com, Miami currently ranks 27th in Defensive FTRate. Meaning they foul opponents more than nearly any other team. With DeMar DeRozan being one of the best in the league at getting to the free-throw line, the Raptors can take full advantage of this.
  2. Clutch Situations – Miami’s current net rating of -1.8 suggest they are a sub .500 team. However, it is their play late in games and clutch situations that has kept them above .500. Toronto will need to play well in the clutch if the game is close.
  3. Point Guard Play – With Kyle Lowry injured for the next period of games, the team will need to rely on both Fred VanVleet, as well as, Delon Wright for major minutes. For their first matchup they will face-off against former all-NBA Goran Dragic. Not an easy test.

Prediction

The second game of a back-to-back is always tough. It is even tougher when your starting point guard and team leader goes down with what appears to be a relatively serious back-injury. Although Toronto is the superior team, it is easy to imagine Miami coming more prepared to play. Heat head into Toronto and get a victory.

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