Lucas Nogueira: forgotten man among Raptors centers?
By Brian Boake
Bebe Nogueira doesn’t get much playing time. Should the Raptors keep him around, and if so, at what price?
Lucas (Bebe) Nogueira became a member of the Toronto Raptors in the summer of 2014. He was viewed as a throw-in to the trade which brought Lou Williams to town, both leaving the Atlanta Hawks for John Salmons. (in case you’re wondering why the Hawks have fallen so far from their 2014-15 season, in which they compiled a 60-22 mark, just remember trades like this one. Sweet Lou is enjoying another brilliant season, Bebe is having his moments – and Salmons never played a minute for Atlanta.)
Since graduating from the Raptors 905, Bebe has been a full-time member of the big team. Sadly, his playing time is doled out sparingly by coach Dwane Casey. Lucas is averaging 11 minutes per game [PG], down from 19.1 last year, and the lowest number among the rotation players. He’s a difficult player to have on the floor because of his penchant for fouling. Bebe’s per-36 minutes extrapolation points to 4.7 fouls PG, which is a quick way to place your opponents in the bonus, and your butt on the bench.
While Lucas hasn’t made progress this season in staying out of trouble, he’s improved in other ways. His shot-blocking and points scored are well up on a per-36 basis. Though he’s third on the depth chart, he’s a lot better than most teams’ third anything.
The center of attention
Raptors grand fromage Masai Ujiri faces a tough decision about Bebe in the off-season. His rookie-scale contract expires and he becomes a restricted free agent. At that point, Lucas can sign another team’s offer sheet, after which the Raptors would have 48 hours to match or say farewell. [Note: Bebe has a qualifying offer of just over $ 4 million for 2018-19, so that’s his minimum sticker price.]
How much is Bebe worth to a capped-out team like the Raptors? That’s not a question that can be answered in isolation. Norman Powell has been re-upped with a hefty raise, and the squad will need to pony up more to retain Fred VanVleet, another RFA. [Fred’s qualifying offer is $ 1.7 million, an amount he’s sure to reject if he keeps playing like he has lately.]
And how much is a center worth in today’s (and tomorrow’s) pace-&-space NBA? Do the Raptors truly need Jonas Valanciunas AND Jakob Poeltl AND Bebe? To close out many games this season, Casey has had Serge Ibaka at center.
Another tricky off-season looms
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Last summer, Masai had to consummate a pair of deals in order to shed salary. Cory Joseph was given away to Indiana, and DeMarre Carroll to Brooklyn. The team was thus able to bring back Kyle Lowry and Serge.
The stakes won’t be as high this time around. Regardless, it’s hard to see how JV can be retained at about $ 34 million for two more seasons. I’d like Bebe (and Fred) back on reasonable deals. Lucas will be 26 when the 2018-19 season tips off, still relatively young for a big man. He’s shown me enough, fouling excluded, to warrant his retention.
And lest I be accused of waffling, let me state that there’s still a need for paint protection, now and forever. Just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers what it’s like to have a defensive vacuum inside.
JV could be moved to an under the cap team like Indiana for Al Jefferson, whose contract is non-guaranteed in 2018-19. The Raptors would end up with nothing for Jonas (assuming Masai does the expected and declines Jefferson’s option).
That’s an ending no one would want to JV’s tenure in Toronto. Unfortunately, it may be the only way to avoid the luxury tax while maintaining some degree of roster flexibility. And we keep Bebe.