The Raptors are close to tipping off the final segment of their season. They are in first place – can they stay there? I hope so, and I like our chances.
The All-Star break for the Toronto Raptors ends on Friday night when the Milwaukee Bucks hit town. Our team has 25 games to play, the last one in Miami on April 11. Let’s take a swing at determining what the Raptors record will be after Game 82.
The schedule is balanced, with 13 games at the Air Canada Centre, leaving 12 on the road. Here’s a Strength of Schedule link I like, which posits Toronto as having a relatively soft go of it. Our opponents have a winning percentage of .491 (compared to Toronto’s .719), meaning only 12 teams have softer opponents to cope with. The 76ers have the easiest final third of all 30 teams.
The Raptors’ five toughest games are Houston and Boston at home, with Boston and a pair against the Cavaliers the hardest roadies. Contrast that with three against the Orlando Magic (it shouldn’t matter where, but two are in Florida) and at the ACC against Atlanta and Brooklyn.
I’m one of those who believes strongly in the importance of winning the #1 seed in the playoffs. Starting every playoff round at home, and playing Game 7 there if needed, is a powerful psychological tool. Therefore, staying where the team currently sits is of paramount importance. I like our chances of doing so, though it won’t be easy. Both Cleveland and Boston have easier schedules than Toronto, while Washington has the second-toughest. The Cavs and Celts are likely to hang around the rest of the way.
What can go wrong?
What worries me most is a late-season injury to one of our core people. Our coach, Dwane Casey, must walk a tightrope. We want to win just enough games to keep adversaries in our rear-view mirror, while avoiding fatigue and injuries.
The magic number of wins is 57. Cleveland would need a 23-3 record to get there, so they are out of consideration. Boston’s mountain to climb is 17-6, which is nasty, particularly for a team which has been backing up lately.
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The Raptors need to roll 16 wins against 9 defeats, which shouldn’t be out of the question. Should our team arrive in early April with an unassailable hold on the top seed, I hope Casey tells his charges “Guys, nobody is playing more than 24 minutes each game until the playoffs. I want to keep everyone sharp, and no one exhausted.”
We’re lookin’ good, people. Can we keep this going?