The Toronto Raptors still have a Jonas Valanciunas problem
After perhaps the best season of his career Jonas Valanciunas silenced many critics. However his weaknesses still create problems for the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors took a one point lead into the fourth quarter against the Washington Wizards in game one of the 2017-2018 NBA playoffs. During that fourth quarter, the most critical of the Raptors’ season thus far, Jonas Valanciunas played zero minutes. Back-up big-man Jakob Poeltl started the quarter and at the 10:02 mark, when Poeltl needed a rest, coach Dwane Casey elected to sub in Lucas Nogueira into the game.
Nogueira responded. The man nicknamed Bebe played spectacularly, particularly on the defensive end, as the Raptors held the Wizards to just 21 fourth quarter points and picked up their first game one win in 11 attempts. While Bebe deserves credit for remaining ready, and the Raptors should be excited picking up their first victory since Vince Carter was on the roster, a larger problem remains. The Raptors can’t play one of their best players late in close games.
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In today’s NBA, Valanciunas is too large of a liability on the defensive end. On/Off lineup data shows the Raptors are a better defensive team when JV is not on the court. When JV is on the court the Raptors have a defensive rating of 106.0, which would rank 15th in the NBA. However, when he is off the court the Raptors rating improves to 101.3, which would rank first.
Valanciunas is not a victim of circumstance either, JV’s presence negatively impacts the team’s defensive ratings when paired alongside both Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam.
During the first three-quarters, particularly in the regular season, Toronto is okay with the trade-off Valanciunas provides. The Raptors are willing to deal with a defensive downgrade in order to receive Valanciunas’ 16.5 points and 12.0 rebounds per 36 minutes.
That equation changes during the fourth quarter and in the post-season. In the playoffs teams are able to gameplan and scout each opponent thoroughly, magnifying whatever weaknesses might exist on one end of the court. During the fourth quarter Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan increase their usage, leaving fewer touches for Valanciunas on the offensive end.
How should Toronto handle this?
Despite Jonas Valanciunas’ limitations, the Raptors will need to be reliant on him moving forward. You cannot waste a $ 15-million player during the playoffs and Valanciunas is too talented to not play a significant role in Toronto’s post-season run.
For this season it is all about maximizing JV’s skill-set. For all of his defensive weaknesses, JV has an imposing offensive game. Toronto needs to use that. Allowing Valanciunas to play minutes opposite of Lowry and DeRozan will enable him to receive more touches-per-minute.
The Raptors can also do their best to limit Valanciunas’ exposure on the defensive end. Allowing JV to rest when the opponents best perimeter scoring threats are on the court, will lessen the liability he is defensively.
Of course these changes do not solve the issue of playing Valanciunas late in games. That remains a problem that is unsolvable for this iteration of Raptors. All coach Casey can do with his current adjustments is make the best of a tough situation.
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Making these adjustments is not a small decision. All of these changes will have ripple effects on the rest of the team’s rotations and cohesion. Yet as the games become more competitive and the Raptors’ margin of error becomes smaller, they are going to need Jonas Valanciunas to have an impact.