Kawhi Leonard is in play: should Raptors make trade offer?

The NBA is a place where the unthinkable often occurs. Kawhi Leonard joining the Raptors might be one of those impossible events. Here’s some trade thoughts.

The eyes of Toronto Raptors fans are fixated on the team’s first-round playoff series with the Washington Wizards. While that’s obviously of extreme import, so is the possibility of Kawhi Leonard’s possible departure from the San Antonio Spurs. Can the Raptors create a trade offer which makes sense?

San Antonio management has not stated whether Leonard is actually on the trading block. Even so, there appears to be a rift between the player and the team, based on conflicting views of the seriousness of his quadriceps injury. For our purposes, we’ll assume he’s in play.

Leonard at his best is one of the NBA’s top ten players, a two-way force at small forward. He’s already the player OG Anunoby might become in Raptors fans’ wildest dreams.

The skinny on Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi, who’s 26, was selected by Indiana with the #15 selection in the June 2011 draft, then traded to San Antonio (a deal Pacers fans must cry in their beer about frequently – they got George Hill). Leonard is a two-time winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award, an All-Star, the winner of the 2014 Finals MVP award, a man who scores inside and out…I don’t think I need to sell you on Kawhi Leonard.

His contract has one more year to run at $20 Million, plus a player option at $21 M for 2019-20. Assuming he returns in top form next season, he’ll almost certainly decline his option and become an Unrestricted Free Agent. After that he’ll command DeMar DeRozan money.

What kind of a deal might entice the Spurs? Probably none at all, unless they believe the relationship between management and Leonard is broken beyond repair, meaning they should get what they can for him, while they can. After next February’s trade deadline, he’s a wasting asset.

Mull these deals over

Financially, a straight-up swap of Leonard for Serge Ibaka works fine. I shook my head in disbelief at the Trade Machine’s conclusion that the Raptors would drop two games, while the Spurs’ wins would be unaffected, by this deal.

The Raptors would be surrendering our starting power forward, who’s with us at manageable money for two more seasons. Should Leonard not find Toronto winters appealing, he could end up being a one-season rental.

Even more startling – Jonas Valanciunas moves to Texas. The trade works, but the Raptors “lose” eight wins, while the Spurs “gain” five. That’s counter-intuitive, for me anyway.

Coach Gregg Popovich loves working with big men, so neither of these trades is crazy.

We could offer a package of players. San Antonio gets Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam and C.J. Miles (I can’t verify this trade because Powell’s big raise doesn’t kick in until after July 1). Denuding our bench seems a dubious proposition, but Leonard is a prize worth taking a chance on.

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You may think the Spurs would never trade Leonard for what appear to be paltry returns, and you might be right. Certainly other teams are going to be putting together unsolicited offers for Leonard which may seem more attractive. And the announcement of a Valanciunas-Leonard (for example) trade would be greeted with outrage by San Antonio fans.

Bad trades initially, better now

However, the trades of Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and others in recent years provide sobering proof that teams which trade stars don’t get full value in return. In theory, the Raptors could throw in to these trades the customary sweetener of a first-round draft pick. In practice, doing so isn’t easy in Toronto’s case. The 2018 pick is already gone to Brooklyn. Masai Ujiri could dance around the Stepien rule by making the trade later in the summer, or by other means. Regardless, the Raptors have been highly successful lately. Our first-rounders are too far down the table to be terribly attractive.

Besides, a change of scenery can be just what’s needed to revive a player’s career. Did anyone think Indiana got a reasonable return for George when Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis went there from OKC? Yours Truly certainly didn’t, but the Pacers have had the last laugh.

The same might be the case in the Butler deal. The Bulls were widely derided initially for having gotten precious little for him. Yet Lauri Markkanen enjoyed an excellent rookie season, Kris Dunn may morph into a quality point guard, and Zach Lavine is an athletic swingman. Chicago could be viewed as the winner of this trade in two seasons.

Neither of these deals included a first-round pick.

You might be convinced San Antonio would hang up on Masai if he pitched any of the deals I’ve sketched out. Don’t be so sure.