The Cleveland Cavaliers needed seven games to push out the stubborn Indiana Pacers. The Cavs are in Toronto to take on the Raptors as the Eastern Conference semi-finals begin.
The Pacers outscored the Cavaliers by 40 points, yet managed to drop Game 7 and the series. Cleveland’s total margin of victory in their four wins: 14. The Cavaliers are vulnerable like we’ve never seen. Their coach, Tyronn Lue, can’t figure out a lineup he can trust.
The Raptors haven’t played since eliminating the Washington Wizards on Friday night. Fred VanVleet’s name has been lifted from the injury report, which means our team is fully healthy. Taking advantage of all the useful players at his disposal will be critical for coach Dwane Casey. So will the youth of his roster; Toronto’s average age is 25.5 years, while Cleveland’s is 28.9.
All LeBron, all the time
The age issue is hugely magnified by the most extreme outlier in the NBA, that being LeBron James. He’ll be 34 at the end of December, and average over 41 minutes of playing time in the Indiana series. The amount of stress he can place on his body while still playing at an ultra-high level will be the most important factor in this series.
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No player is dominating his team’s numbers like LeBron. His 34.4 points per game [PPG] is more than the next three Cavaliers (Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver) combined. King James averaged 7.7 assists PG against Indiana, which puts in the shade the dimes for notional point guard George Hill.
He’s also way ahead in rebounds – and turnovers.
3 keys to Raptors victory
- Don’t gamble when covering LeBron – no reach-in fouls. I’m going to assume the primary defensive responsibility for coverage will fall upon OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. Both our guys are long enough, and mobile enough, to be able to stay in front of LeBron most of the time. If they are left behind by screens, or on the pick and roll, King James must be picked up before he gets a chance to go downhill off the dribble. If he’s got a lane, let him go. He gets every foul call whenever a defender is in his vicinity when he drives, so don’t bother. Ideally he won’t find a seam, and either dish or put up a mid-range jumper. Both alternatives are acceptable.
- Pound the ball inside. Tristan Thompson had hardly played before getting tapped to start in Game 7. He produced well for them, but our big men will give him much more of a challenge than Indiana’s did. Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas are tough covers for Thompson, and Kevin Love hasn’t been a factor on the glass to date. They don’t have a true center they can press into action.
- Close out on shooters beyond the arc. The Cavaliers aren’t likely to attack the basket much. If their offense becomes little more than Love and Korver tossing up contested 3-balls late in the clock, the Raptors will capitalize. Cleveland will likely keep its rebounders, such as they are, around the rim, rather than retreating when a mate puts a shot up. They watched the film of the Washington series, and saw how the Raptors gave up a ridiculous number of second-chance opportunities. Boxing out will be critical for Toronto.
Prediction
The Raptors have more scoring options than the Cavaliers, but they have LeBron. If he gets his points, but not his assists, the Raptors will win Game 1.
Toronto 117 – Cleveland 106