One year ago, the Toronto Raptors traded away DeMarre Carroll along with two 2018 draft picks in order to clear cap space. One year later we examine if the trade was a mistake?
On July 1, 2015, the first day of free-agency, the Toronto Raptors and DeMarre Carroll agreed to a four-year $60 million contract. The deal was relatively well-received around the league, with some questioning the value, but few questioning the fit.
Two injury-riddled years later, Carroll was traded along with a first and second round draft pick to the Brooklyn Nets, as part of a “salary-dump”. The trade allowed the Raptors to re-sign Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry while remaining under the Luxury-Tax threshold.
After one full year, we take a look-back and determine if the DeMarre Carroll trade was a good decision.
The value of a first round pick
After a franchise record 59 wins, the Toronto Raptors finished the 2017-2018 season with the 29th and 59th overall picks. Those picks turned out to be Džanan Musa and George King.
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The dollar value of a pick can be difficult to judge. Factors unique to each individual year, such as strength of draft class, salary-cap outlook, and other bidding partners, can all have a significant impact.
Parting ways with a high-cost contract during the cap-boom of 2016 is a much different proposal than shedding one this offseason, when cap-space was more difficult to come across than a reasonable Sacramento Kings trade.
In general terms, however, the Raptors received a relatively fair value on their cap-dump. Perhaps, the expectation was for Toronto to finish closer to the bottom of the playoffs, or perhaps Brooklyn simply had no better way to use their space.
With the Carroll trade, the Raptors shed $30 million total or $15 million per year. If Carroll was approximated to be a $7 million player (rough estimate) during his time with the Raptors, Toronto saved $16 million.
As a comparison, rumors surrounded the Nuggets using the 14th overall pick to unload Kenneth Faried’s one-year, $13.8 million deal. If rumors don’t interest you, Kevin Pelton projected the value of that same number 14 pick to be worth approximately $11.5 million.
Regardless of the measuring system it’s hard to argue the Raptors got anything below market-value in dumping Carroll’s overpriced deal.
Opportunity Cost
Of course, Carroll’s deal did not happen in a vacuum and his departure will forever be linked to Serge Ibaka’s three-year contract. Ultimately, Carroll was traded in order to clear space to re-sign Ibaka to longer, more expensive contract. When viewed through this lens, the deal becomes far less favorable for Toronto.
Last season, DeMarre Carroll played 73 games for the Nets almost exclusively at power-forward (77% of minutes according to basketball reference), and produced nearly identical numbers to Ibaka. In fact, if you were to poll all thirty NBA coaches, the majority may prefer Carroll over Ibaka.
Furthermore, Carroll will be playing on an expiring deal this season, while Ibaka will be paid approximately $22.5 million over the next two years (whoof).
Next: Best draft picks in Toronto Raptors History
The Verdict
The trade itself grades out as a mundane NBA cap-dump.
However when you consider, the Toronto Raptors parted ways with a first and second round pick, in order to re-sign an equally productive player at a higher value, it appears Masai might have botched this one.