Raptors Rapture
Fansided

Toronto Raptors: Predicting the 2018 buyout market

By Mike Bossetti

PHILADELPHIA, PA - May 5: Ersan Ilyasova #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on May 5, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - May 5: Ersan Ilyasova #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on May 5, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
1 of 6
Next
PHILADELPHIA, PA – May 5: Ersan Ilyasova #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on May 5, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – May 5: Ersan Ilyasova #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on May 5, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Every season the NBA is heavily impacted by buyout candidates. After missing  the buyout market last season, who might the Toronto Raptors target this year?

Every year, NBA teams rush to build their team in July.  Every spot in the rotation and all 15 roster spots are locked and loaded, ready for the season.  Yet, every season we see teams add major pieces through March.

Whether it is addition by trade or through the buyout market, many playoff teams will rely on players who were not on their roster to start the season.

Perhaps the best example of a team which used the buyout market to their advantage last season was the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philadelphia added two major playoff pieces in Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilysova. Bellinelli averaged 13 points per game in the postseason, while Ilysova averaged nine and five. Ilysova even started a postseason game due to a Joel Embiid injury.

There are many factors that go into finding a perfect buyout candidate.

  • They need to be on one year deals: Logistically, it almost never makes sense to buyout players on multi-year deals. With more than one year remaining teams will typically wait until the offseason to see if they can unload the player without the financial hit.
  • They need to be on a bad team: Good teams aren’t going to release any potential difference makers. They definitely aren’t going to do so knowing the player could sign with their playoff competition.
  • They need to be old: Team’s don’t cut bait with young players. If a player is young and talented most teams will do everything in their power to bring a player back next season, even if that costs them some games in the “tank-race”.
  • They need to overpaid: If a player is good and properly paid, typically a trade can be worked out. However, if their contract is too big to receive realistic matching salaries, they usually end up cut.

If old, overpaid players on bad teams don’t get you excited, there is good news. The most important factor in finding a buyout candidate is that the player needs to be good. If the player can’t crack the playoff rotation or at least provide injury insurance, there is no purpose of bringing them in.

The competition

Of course, Toronto will not be the only team looking to benefit from the buyout market. Almost all contenders will be looking to add valuable veterans into the fold.

When looking for a post-buyout landing spot, players look for three key elements: a chance for a title, playing time, and of course, money.

Toronto will be able to beat most teams in at least two of the three. Toronto has as good of a chance at a title as anyone not named Golden State, and with their Tax-Payer Mid-Level Exception still remaining, Toronto can pay more than most teams if they need to.

So who are likely to be the Raptors’ biggest competitors in the 2018:

  • Houston Rockets: A team that battled Golden State in seven games last season, the Houston Rockets are a legitimate title contender. The losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah A Moute hurt their title chances slightly, but provide the opportunity for more playing time to any buyout candidate. They also have their tax-payer MLE.
  • Golden State Warriors: They won’t be able to offer as much money as Toronto, but they will offer a better chance to win a ring.
  • Boston Celtics: Similar availability in both minutes and championship probability. So close to the tax-line, Boston may be trying to avoid the Luxury Tax. If they do avoid the tax, Toronto has the only distinct advantage, money.
  • Utah Jazz: Not quite as much of a contender, Utah is armed with the full Mid-Level Exception, allowing them to pay $3 million more than most teams.

But who will they be fighting for? Let’s take a look at the possible buyout candidates.