Toronto Raptors: Five Things That Must Happen For Kawhi To Win MVP
5. A Forgettable Season for Anthony Davis
Note: While the other three players above Kawhi in Bovada’s odds (Antetokounmpo, Harden and Durant) will be lightly addressed below, Anthony Davis presents a special case worthy of its own complete analysis.
Second to LeBron James in the early NBA MVP odds for 2018-19 is Anthony Davis, the only other player (with higher odds than Kawhi) who presents a real challenge to Leonard for the MVP award if the above four stipulations are met. For Kawhi to win MVP, then, Davis needs to miss the playoffs with New Orleans next season.
After just 65 games alongside DeMarcus Cousins over two seasons, Davis once again finds himself leading the charge in New Orleans. However, projected by Westgate to have the sixth most wins in the conference, expectations for Davis’ team next season are relatively average.
So long as Davis stays healthy though, it is almost a guarantee that he will put up significant numbers as an individual player. With career averages of 23.4 points and 10.3 rebounds, coupled with his yearly escalation in those categories, statistical production is clearly no concern for Davis. However, his consistent ability to accumulate amazing individual statistics is the reason why a lack of team success would allow Kawhi to win MVP next year.
Much like LeBron James, Davis’ team failures would cost him a realistic shot at winning the MVP because of how “expected” his stats are. In other words, because individual stats alone rarely win an MVP award in isolation from team success, Anthony Davis would likely not be crowned the 2018-19 NBA MVP if he fails to elevate New Orleans into the playoffs. In fact, by most measures, missing the playoffs would mean falling short of already quite modest expectations — since the sixth seed is an innately low standard anyways — and this would probably take Davis out of the MVP discussion entirely.
Consequently, again, Kawhi meeting all four above conditions would be a spectacular feat for him and such accomplishments, alongside Davis’ own struggles, would ultimately put Leonard in a great position to win next season’s NBA MVP award.
Side: Here is where Leonard edges out the other three players with higher odds than him for MVP if all five “musts” detailed above actually occur…
Antetokounmpo (9/2): If the Raptors end the regular season as the 1 seed in the Eastern conference, this gives Leonard the edge over Giannis because he will innately have had more team success than Antetokounmpo in 2018-19.
Harden (11/2): If Kawhi puts up solid numbers and leads Toronto to the top of the East, Leonard would edge out Harden for the award because Harden has already led the Rockets to the 1 seed in the West. Therefore, he would not be accomplishing anything new in 2018-19, especially if DeMarcus Cousins — the Warriors’ highly touted offseason addition — chooses to continue exercising patience with his torn achilles and does not make much of an impact before the playoffs. Meanwhile, considering that Toronto is largely projected to be worse than Boston and Philadelphia, Kawhi’s accomplishments would conversely improve his case for MVP next year if Toronto gets the 1st seed.
Durant (9/1): If all five “musts” occur, Durant will simply have a hard time beating out Leonard for the MVP. This is because Durant is largely considered the best player on Golden State but many people consider Curry to be more valuable, as detailed here by the Score. Appropriately, if everything goes right for all three players, it is just very unlikely that Durant will have the advantage over Leonard, let alone Curry, in the MVP race next season.