Matchup to watch
Al Horford vs. Jonas Valanciunas
Without being hyperbolic, the matchup between Al Horford and Jonas Valanciunas could decide the Eastern Conference this season.
Boston, with Al Horford at center, will attempt to force Jonas Valanciunas off the court. A mobile big-man with an effective three-point shot, Horford is the prototype of a center built to give JV trouble.
Checkout Horford making Joel Embiid look silly in pick-and-pop coverage:
That is the same Joel Embiid who was nearly Defensive Player of the Year getting put in the blender. Think of what he will do to poor slow-footed Valanciunas.
During that series, Philly was able to hide Embiid on Marcus Morris. Again they hid the guy who finished second place in Defensive Player of the Year. With Hayward back into the picture, there might not be anywhere to hide.
Luckily, with the Raptors defensive talent on the wing, JV won’t be forced to provide as much help on the ball-handler. Without significant help responsibilities, Toronto is hoping Valanciunas can just tread water defensively.
On the other side, Toronto will try to bully Boston into playing Aron Baynes legitimate minutes. If Valanciunas is too much for Horford on the low-block, it’s a tactic Stevens might need to employ.
Horford is a good team defender but isn’t exactly a bruiser in the paint. Valanciunas will need to overpower him around the basket and particularly on the offensive glass.
Last season, Horford posted a rebound rate of just 11.5-percent. Compare that to a massive 18.7-percent rate from Valanciunas, and you can see where Boston could struggle. In a matchup as close as this, offensive rebounds can be the difference. Without Baynes to protect him, will Horford be able to contain JV on the glass?
If he can, it will cause significant problems for Toronto.
Boston already maintains the slight talent-edge. If JV can’t stay on the court, the difference might become insurmountable.