Toronto Raptors: early notes and things to watch for

The Toronto Raptors have their sights set on their first finals appearance in franchise history. Toppling the Golden State Warriors won’t be easy, but the Raptors have the personnel to give them a run for their money.

The NBA season is less than a week old, but some storylines are starting to emerge. Anthony Davis is ready to throw his hat into the ring for best player on the planet. The Jimmy Butler situation is going to continue well into the season. The Toronto Raptors own, Kawhi Leonard is back and set to reclaim his title as the best two-way player in the league.

It is still early and Leonard looks a bit rusty, but he has put up some impressive stat lines. Leonard had a signature performance against the Boston Celtics on Friday night. He scored 31 points, along with 10 rebounds, 3 assists and one steal. Leonard has also had some impressive defensive plays, including a double-block with Danny Green, denying Jayson Tatum at the rim.

MVP Interest

Raptors fans broke out the MVP chants during the team’s win over the Celtics. As Leonard pointed out in his post-game interview, it might be a little early for such proclamations. However, Leonard is a legitimate MVP candidate. If the Raptors finish atop the Eastern Conference again or crack 60 wins, it is likely because Leonard has regained his place in the league’s hierarchy.

The MVP is up for grabs this season. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry cancel each other out. It seems unlikely that James Harden repeats. LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Davis may not have enough team success to be considered for the award. That leaves Leonard, who may be viewed as a dark horse candidate, but he finished in the top three in voting during his last two healthy seasons. Andrew Sharp of SI.com also picked Leonard as the preseason favourite for the award last year.

Leonard is still working his way back. The Raptors gave him the night off against Washington on the second night of a back-to-back. The one facet of Leonard’s game that he still needs to work on is his shooting. It’s clear that Leonard doesn’t have his legs under him. Leonard is shooting 40 percent. However, given that Leonard only played nine games last season, it may take a few weeks for him to find a rhythm.

Overlooked acquisition

Danny Green was the Raptors’ other main acquisition this summer. He played most of last year with a groin injury and saw his numbers drop. But Green looks right at home in Coach Nick Nurse’s system.

Green is averaging 7.3 three-point attempts per game. After the first two games, Green was shooting 50 percent from long-distance. That number has dropped following a 1-for-8 performance against the Wizards. However, Green is a 39.5 percentage three-point shooter for his career. He is going to a key contributor for the Raptors this year. Green is the definition of a 3-and-D player.

There has obviously been a lot of speculation as to whether the Raptors will be able to keep Leonard beyond this season. What hasn’t been discussed is how Green fits with the team long-term. Assuming Masai Ujiri can convince Leonard to stay, Ujiri should look to retain Green as well.

What will happen next summer?

Green will be a free agent next summer. He is set to earn $10 million this season. Green is 31 years old and will be looking for his last big payday. Green was a second round pick in 2009. He spent time in the D-League (now G-League). Green has made just over $50 million throughout his career. He will probably be looking to sign a three or four-year deal at around $10 million per season.

The Raptors currently have nine players under contract for next season, assuming Jonas Valanciunas ($17.6 million) and C.J. Miles ($8.7 million) pick up their player options. Resigning Leonard to a max contract and retaining Green would put the payroll at $152 million. That does not include a new contract for Delon Wright.

Wright hasn’t played so far this season. He is currently sidelined with a thigh contusion. But once Wright is healthy he will likely slot in with the Raptors’ second unit. Wright spent most of last season playing alongside Fred VanVleet, giving the bench mob two ball handlers.

So far, Nurse has preferred to stagger the minutes of his starters. Last year, Dwane Casey played two distinct units. That hasn’t been the case this season. With only so many minutes to give out, Wright will take playing time away from C.J. Miles and Norman Powell. Those two are at the end of the rotation. They have played limited minutes, except with Leonard resting on Saturday Powell was given a larger role.

The Raptors might look to shed salary at the deadline

Given the Raptors depth on the perimeter, it would not be surprising to see the team make a trade at the February deadline. One team that needs help on the wing is the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans recently acquired Wesley Johnson from the Los Angeles Clippers. Johnson is a strong defensive player, but doesn’t space the floor.

If the Pelicans want to make a deep playoff run, they will need to surround Davis with more shooting. Otherwise, teams like the Warriors and the Rockets will be able to double-team Davis, without consequence.

Two seasons ago, it cost the Raptors two second round picks to acquire P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline. The Phoenix Suns were originally seeking a first round pick, but eventually settled. The Pelicans are on the clock. Davis can become a free agent in 2020. Would they trade a first round pick for Miles in order to make a run?

The Raptors don’t have a first round pick this year. A top-20 protected pick was sent to the Spurs as part of the Leonard trade. The Raptors also didn’t have a first round pick in this past draft. It was sent to the Brooklyn Nets in order to dump DeMarre Carroll’s contract.

With the NBA being a salary cap league, it is important to have players on cost controlled rookie scale contracts. The Raptors have done a good job over the last couple of years of finding solid players at the end of the first round. Trading Miles would provide a bit more flexibility to resign Green and Wright. It would also give Powell or Malachi Richardson the opportunity to get consistent playing time.

The only reason the Raptors may be hesitant to trade a player like Miles is his three-point shooting. Analytics have taught us that mid-range shots are not efficient. Teams are more focused on scoring in the paint or hitting from distance.

Last season the Raptors finished third in three-point attempts at 33 per game. That was up from 24.3 attempts the season before. This year NBA teams are taking an unprecedented number of threes. Three teams are attempting 40 or more per game. The Raptors have attempted 32.3 threes per game, which ranks 13th. The Houston Rockets are leading the league again at 45 attempts per game.

Nurse likes to have an up tempo offense that shoots a lot of threes. He was previously the Head Coach of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers in the D-League. Nurse led the Vipers to the championship during the 2012-13 Season. During that season, the Vipers finished first in offensive rating and pace. The Vipers also took 145 more threes than the next team.

Current offensive/defensive ratings

The Raptors currently have the seventh best offensive rating. I anticipate that the number of threes will increase as Leonard and Green are further incorporated into the offense. Finally, it is clear that Nurse wants to push the pace.

Given the strength of the Raptors’ perimeter defenders, the team should be able to get out and score in transition. A number of different players are going to be given the opportunity to handle the ball.

Pascal Siakam started the first two games. He also played 26 minutes against the Wizards. Siakam has been given the freedom to initiate the offense. There are not many players who are capable of securing the rebound and taking the ball coast-to-coast.

A popular comparison for Siakam is Draymond Green. Unfortunately for Raptors’ fans, Siakam has not reached that level. Green is a three-time All-Star and former Defensive Player of the Year. Siakam needs to become a better shooter and continue to work on his ball handling. However, he is starting to show flashes of his potential. If Siakam continues to improve, it is not inconceivable that an All-Star appearance or two could be in his future.

The Raptors have started the season 3-0. They have one of the deepest lineups in the entire Association. Nurse has said he is going to experience with various lineups, which has worked so far. Despite the Celtics being the preseason favourite to make the NBA Finals, the Raptors have other things in mind.

Stats were provided by NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com