Toronto Raptors: 3 keys to W over Milwaukee Bucks

The Toronto Raptors face their sternest test of the year when they tip off against the boiling hot Milwaukee Bucks. Who’s going to be in top spot when the smoke clears?

Tonight in Milwaukee, the Toronto Raptors have a chance to win their second statement game of the new season. The Bucks are the only other NBA with an undefeated mark, after winning their sixth straight over the stuck-in-the-mud Orlando Magic on Saturday.

The Bucks, coached by former Atlanta Hawks top man Mike Budenholzer, have demolished their opponents. They scraped past Charlotte by a point in Game 1, after which their smallest margin of victory has been eleven points. Milwaukee is plus_16 so far, by far the league’s best. The Raptors are plus_10.8, which is third; Golden State is plus_12.8.

The only fly in the Bucks’ ointment has been the unimpressive records of their defeated opponents. They handled the 76ers and Pacers, but everyone else is a likely lottery team. The Raptors don’t have bragging rights either, as the Celtics have been the only contender they have beaten.

Lots of analysts thought Giannis Antetokounmpo would be an MVP candidate, and he’s making them look smart. He’s already averaging a “big” double-double (25 points and 14.2 rebounds per game [PG]), and is second on the team in assists. Normally I preface players’ names with their position, but there’s little point with him. He plays 1-5, and everyone else adjusts.

Their other reliable basket-maker is the severely underrated swingman Khris Middleton, who has drained an impossible 57.1% of his 3-balls so far. He used to be dismissable as “just a scorer”, but a Defensive Rating of 98 puts that lazy notion to rest.

Malcolm Brogdon at the point plays more minutes than anyone else. What he lacks in athleticism he makes up for with BB IQ. If you can, watch him closely – you will be rewarded.

Eric Bledsoe is a veteran shooting guard who can go off for a serious number if attention isn’t paid. At center, another veteran, Brook Lopez, does more than pick, pass and rebound. He’s a significant paint presence on D, and can burn opposing centers with deep shooting.

The bench may be low-profile, but should not be taken lightly. John Henson and Ersan Ilyasova won’t be pushed around under the boards. Ilyasova can hit long balls. Matthew Dellavedova is a giant pain to play against; he’s the epitome of a pest. I’m going to be paying attention to rookie Donte DiVincenzo, who almost single-handedly won the NCAA championship game for Villanova with brilliant shooting.

3 keys to Raptors win

1. Put Kawhi on Middleton. If we don’t get this guy under control, we’re going to get smoked just like the Bucks’ last five opponents. He’s made 24 long balls already, which ranks him third behind Steph and Kemba Walker. While there’s a temptation to worry about Giannis, he’s much more of a close-in threat. Let him bang against our big men, and hopefully get tired. He’s made 1 of 16 3-balls so far.
2. Don’t lose to their second unit. Our bench mob hasn’t dominated so far, and they don’t need to here. But they can’t get pounded either. I like our starters better than theirs.
3. Stop losing the battle of the boards. The Raptors rank 28th in opposition offensive rebounds. Against a high-scoring Bucks team, those second chances could prove fatal. Milwaukee leads the NBA in 3-pointers made PG, with 15. That’s a recipe for disaster for Toronto.

Prediction

Do I have to? The Bucks are healthy, and as deep as I’ve ever seen them. They have a superstar, and an excellent supporting cast. The fewest points they have scored is 113.

I’m not bailing on our guys now.

Toronto Raptors 121 – Milwaukee Bucks 115