Toronto Raptors: 3 keys to victory over Pelicans

The Toronto Raptors put their league-leading 12-1 record on the line tonight as they face the New Orleans Pelicans. Anthony Davis leads the 6-6 Pels on both sides of the ball.

The Toronto Raptors face a Western Conference opponent for the fifth time in six games, though the first one at Scotiabank Arena. The New Orleans Pelicans are in a dogfight (can pelicans get in a dogfight?) for a low-rung playoff spot with a host of others. As of November 12, there are eight Western teams with either six or seven wins, producing tightness in the standings which I expect to continue all season. As in the East, there are a few Western teams with separation already (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers), then a hungry batch.

Any discussion of the Pelicans begins with Anthony Davis. He’s been a well-rounded beast for years, and like our Kawhi Leonard, is one of the NBA’s top five players. He’s 12th in points per game [PG], second in blocked shots, seventh in rebounds, and so on. Davis can score from anywhere on the court, now that he’s added a respectable (35%) 3-pointer to his collection of shots.

Coach Nick Nurse will have to game-plan for Davis. What isn’t known is the health status of running mate Nikola Mirotic. He turned an ankle last week, and is a game-time decision.

If Mirotic plays, he presents another defensive headache. He’s tall enough to get his accurate 3-point shot off against almost anyone not named Serge Ibaka (although Pascal Siakam may give him a headache). Mirotic is more than skilled enough to put the ball on the floor and penetrate the paint, where he can score or pass.

I’ve always liked their point guard, Jrue Holiday. He’s a heads-up guy, which his assists mark of 8.8 PG makes clear. Fortunately for Toronto, his shooting isn’t up to the standard of his play-making.

Elfrid Payton, who’s too erratic for my tastes, is the backup at the point. He’s a game-time decision because of an ankle injury.

3 keys to a win over Pelicans

1. Make life miserable for Davis. He’s second on their team to Holiday in assists, which means he knows what to do when he’s double-teamed. I hope we don’t do much of that beyond the occasional late-clock blitz. We have two capable centers who can wear Davis out. Until he shows he can consistently beat them on the low block, or find the open man, I say let our big guys do the work.
2. Run them into the ground. The Minnesota Timberwolves are the gold standard for teams lacking balance, but New Orleans isn’t far behind. Beware teams who have few players averaging 20-25 minutes of floor time. The Pels have one, and it’s Payton who may not dress. Their second unit can be exploited. Tire out the starters, then bring on the Bench Mob.
3. Play them loose on the perimeter. The Pels rank 24th in 3-balls attempted with 27.5 PG, and they connect at a pedestrian 35.8% rate. Unless somebody shows up with a hot hand, let them fire away.

Prediction

New Orleans is an excellent team in terms of top talent, and a shabby one the further down the roster you go. If we hold the fort for the 36 minutes or so Davis and their best are on the floor, we can hammer them the other 12.

Toronto Raptors 119 – New Orleans Pelicans 108