Toronto Raptors: 3 keys to victory over Orlando Magic

The Toronto Raptors are in Orlando to face the Magic. This visit used to be an easy win, but the home team suddenly is playing like it has a clue.

The Toronto Raptors play Game 3 of their 4-game road trip in the warm and pleasant climes of Orlando, Florida tonight. The weather may be fine, but the opponents are on the move. Toronto won’t be able to mail this match in like they did against the sad Chicago Bulls on Saturday.

The Magic have been bad for years. They have been in the draft lottery six straight seasons, yet still seemed stuck in the mud when this season tipped off. It doesn’t help when they dump players too soon; case in point, Victor Oladipo, who had to be moved to Indiana before he found his groove. Dario Saric, Mario Hezonja, Domantas Sabonis – all lottery picks helping other NBA teams.

Toronto has dominated this team since the end of the 2011-12 season. At that point, the Magic owned the head to head record 34-26; today it tilts 44-37 Raptors, or 18-3 over the last 6 seasons.

You can throw all that out. The Magic started their season like it would be more of the same (2-6), yet here they are sporting a 9-8 mark. In their defeat of Philadelphia, the Magic overcame an 11-point deficit starting the fourth quarter.

Orlando enjoys balanced scoring. Their leader is sweet-shooting center Nikola Vucevic, also their top rebounder. Following closely is athletic shooting guard Aaron Gordon, then veteran French swingman Evan Fournier. In fourth place is none other than Terrence Ross, with his highest career mark of 13.6 points per game [PG]. He seems content as first wing off the bench, and is hitting his 3-balls at a 39.8% rate.

Point guard D.J. Augustin, now on his ninth(!) NBA team, is enjoying an excellent season to date. I wouldn’t wager a bunch of money he can keep it up through 82 games, but who knows?

Giant rookie center Mohamed Bamba is averaging 17.7 minutes PG, yet leads the team with 1.47 blocks. Extrapolate that over 36 minutes, and you have a scary paint presence. He looks like he can score as well.

3 keys to a Raptors win

1. Hang on to the ball. Unlike a lot of mediocre to poor teams, Orlando commits few turnovers. They sit fourth with 12.9 PG, and enjoy a 1.7 margin over opponents. In a tight game like I expect this one to be, turnovers will matter.
2. Avoid a shootout. I like a fast pace, but so does Orlando. They have given up 117 points to each of their last two opponents, and won both games. We might be well-advised to slow things down, like Boston does, and take high-quality shots. Running and gunning might be a losing strategy.
3. Break out of this long-distance shooting slump. Admittedly, that’s not a tactic; I’m blowing off steam. The losses to Detroit and Boston could have been wins had we made our open looks. (For the record: we weren’t beating the Pelicans. The way they shot in Toronto was absurd. They would have hammered the ’95-96 Bulls.)

Prediction

I think we can score in the paint against the Magic. If Vucevic sits because Serge Ibaka is scoring at will, their offense will suffer. I like our chances, but we will need to play 48 minutes.

Toronto Raptors 126 – Orlando Magic 119