Toronto Raptors: Examining the potential price of Bradley Beal
It has been reported that the Washington Wizards are listening to trade offers on everyone, including Bradley Beal. Should the Toronto Raptors make a call?
The Washington Wizards have been terrible so far this season. Despite a good amount of talent, they sit just 5-11, with one of the worst point differentials in the entire NBA. The Toronto Raptors are 12-4 with the best record in the NBA. So what could the Raptors possibly gain from a trade with the Washington Wizards? Bradley Beal.
According to a report by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Washington Wizards are listening to trade calls about everyone — including John Wall and Bradley Beal. John Wall is a bad idea for a variety of reasons, none being larger than the $207 million extension he signed just over one year ago.
Bradley Beal, however, is a much more attractive option. He’s an All-Star, only 25-years-old, and has two years remaining on a reasonable contract after this season.
The price for Beal will be high, but the Raptors have the chips if they want him.
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The starting point
The starting point for any deal is going to be OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam. Team president Masai Ujiri will do everything in his powers to keep them out of the negotiations, but from a Wizards perspective, no Pascal or OG is a non-starter.
You might point out that Masai was able to land Kawhi Leonard without parting with either young prospect. DeMar DeRozan was also a part of that deal. Unless the Raptors are throwing in Kyle Lowry (they aren’t), the matching salary won’t include a player close to DeMar’s caliber.
The Wizards will probably haggle for both players to be included. That’s not happening either, so it will come down to one or the other.
The way Pascal Siakam is playing, it might be tempting to say that he is worth far more than OG. I’m not so sure. OG is more versatile defensively, and his shooting allows him to blend into different lineups more easily. He’s also three years younger and under team control for an additional season.
OG has the higher ceiling. Pascal is the better player at the moment. For that reason, I’m guessing it’s OG that is included in the deal.
Matching salaries
Washington doesn’t want a center back. In today’s NBA, no-one wants a center back. However, it’s hard to work a deal without sending either Jonas Valanciunas or Serge Ibaka to match salaries.
It’s possible. C.J. Miles and Norman Powell bring you close. Add in a couple of sweeteners to make the deal happen, and it will get there. However, I’m not sure if four-years of Norman Powell is better than two-years of JV, even if you don’t want a center.
Serge has more value to the contending Toronto Raptors than he does the rebuilding Wizards. For that reason, JV is likely the salary to make the deal work.
Sweeteners
JV and Anunoby isn’t enough. If Toronto wants the deal to happen, they’ll need to throw in an additional asset.
Unfortunately for the Raptors, their first-round pick is not available. After sending away their pick as part of the Kawhi Leonard trade, the earliest pick Toronto could send out is in 2021.
One option is throwing in Delon Wright. Wright is an extremely young and talented two-way guard. He also is in the last year of his current team-friendly deal. Throwing in Delon at this point is about equivalent to a late-lottery selection.
Still, that doesn’t feel like enough from Washington’s perspective. I’d guess that they demand a first-rounder be thrown in, even if it is for optics. 2021 is far enough out that Toronto will need to put on protections. The protections will be somewhat negotiable, somewhere in the range of lottery-protected which turns into two-seconds if it does not convey.
The final deal
Is it worth it?
It’s a lot. You don’t get players of Bradley Beal’s caliber for cheap. JV, Wright, and a first are certainly expendable. The question is if you can live with giving up on OG Anunoby.
OG is great. Beal is better. Bradley Beal is probably in the 90th-percentile of Anunoby outcomes. Annunoby’s also getting paid about 10-times less and is under team control for significantly longer.
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Ultimately, I won’t tell you whether the trade is worth it or not. That’s dependent on your appetite for risk, and everybody has a different level of risk they’re willing to deal with. I’m just telling you the cost, and the cost is high.