The Toronto Raptors face the Miami Heat at Scotiabank Arena in their first of four meetings. All three games last season were tight, but the Raptors should be favoured today.
A star-less version of the Miami Heat meets the Toronto Raptors at suppertime today. The Heat, a team with no talent to spare in the first place, won’t have Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, or Tyler Johnson in uniform.
Miami has been on the outside looking in since the Big 3 stopped being a Thing. Without Dwyane Wade (he’s back now), LeBron James or Chris Bosh (forced to retire with blood clots in his lungs), the Heat are 3 games over .500 when you combine their last two seasons. In 2018-19, they are 7-11. Their offense, already under strain when everyone was healthy, didn’t break a century in three recent straight losses. They broke that skid Friday night with a narrow win over rebuilding Chicago.
Josh Richardson starts at shooting guard, and is the Heat-man most responsible for keeping hope alive in south Florida. His scoring average has leapt from 12.9 points per game last season to 20.5 this. He’s taking 6.6 3-pointers PG, by far Miami’s most, and hitting them at an impressive 43.7% rate. Not surprisingly, he’s the Heat leader in minutes played.
The point guard today is Wayne Ellington, pressed into service there until Dragic returns. Like Rodney McGruder at small forward, he’s over his head.
James Johnson returns to Toronto as the starting power forward. Watch for him to bully Pascal Siakam; failing that, he’ll try a hard foul or two.
Hassan Whiteside can be a beast on the boards, or seem strangely disconnected from the game. He leads the NBA in blocked shots by a considerable margin over Anthony Davis, so the paint won’t be friendly to even the biggest Raptors.
Wade will be coming off the bench, and can still contribute. Kelly Olynyk has seen his minutes cut, and his scoring go down – or the other way round. He’s not the outside threat he has been in the past. Bam Adebayo hasn’t yet made the leap to prominence at center I thought (and still think) he will. Watch for him to wreck havoc under the boards.
3 keys to Raptors victory
- Punish their starting lineup. Our starters, save Kawhi Leonard, didn’t distinguish themselves against the Wizards, but have a chance for redemption.
- Attack their interior defense. While Whiteside can be scary, he can also get in foul trouble, as can Johnson. The Raptors should be able to get into the bonus early every quarter by shedding Miami’s indifferent perimeter defenders.
- Don’t be afraid to double-team. With several of their deep shooters sidelined, our defense can afford to zero in on Richardson (and Ellington, to a lesser extent). Miami commits 15.7 turnovers PG, one of the league’s worst marks. Let’s help that along with some pressure D when their best guys pick up their dribble.
Prediction
The Raptors are a better team top to bottom, even when/if Miami is at full strength. We’re only missing Norman Powell – we’ve got this.
Toronto Raptors 121 – Miami Heat 108