Toronto Raptors: 3 keys to W over Milwaukee Bucks

The Toronto Raptors face another strong contender with the Milwaukee Bucks in town. Both teams have dropped two of their last three, and won’t be in any mood to fool around.

The Milwaukee Bucks visit Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Raptors at suppertime today. This match could be a preview of the Eastern Conference final, so the interest is intense. There’s additional buzz because we’ll see two top-drawer Most Valuable Player candidates clash. In this season’s first meeting between these clubs, neither Kawhi Leonard nor Giannis Antetokounmpo dressed. To our delight, they will today.

The Bucks have just finalized an interesting trade. George Hill has been added from the hapless Cleveland Cavaliers to improve Milwaukee’s backcourt depth. He’ll surely do that, but not in this game as he’s ineligible to join his new team until at least Monday. Milwaukee surrendered a pair of helpful rotation players, irritating guard Matthew Dellavedova and big man John Henson (plus a first-rounder), so the Bucks won’t have a lot of depth.

That’s not likely to hurt them, as their first five play a ton of minutes anyway. I’ve been doing these “3 keys” previews a long time, and can’t remember ever seeing a roster where the starters are so firmly in place (and free of injury).  Only two players, Tony Snell and Ersan Illysova, have each started a grand total of one game. Otherwise, Giannis, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon and Robin Lopez have heard their names every night.

They are the only Bucks averaging double figures in scoring. Lopez averages the fewest minutes played with 27.6 per game [PG]. Illyasova is the only bencher granted (barely) 20 minutes PG.

The over-dependence on starters is working so far, as the Bucks are 16-8. However, if even one starter has an off-game, they struggle.

3 keys to Raptors victory

1. Make Giannis uncomfortable. No one has been able to figure out how to stop him, but it’s possible to slow him down. In particular, the Raptors must force him to take jump shots by bodying up on him. While I like blocked shots, you aren’t getting many of those against this guy – best to keep feet on the ground and arms straight up when he turns to fire. Oddly enough, this is a match-up where a P.J. Tucker/Chuck Hayes type would be useful. Both are low-slung, thick-bodied, “handsy”, and hard to move. Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka must behave the same.
2. Stay with Lopez, even beyond the perimeter. Their center takes, and makes, the second-highest number of 3-balls on the team.
3. Get a body on them! I don’t like repeating myself, but it can’t be helped. The Raptors’ rebounding woes will kill them against this bunch. The Bucks pull down the greatest number of boards in the NBA, and enjoy the highest differential, at plus_7.2.

Prediction

If the Raptors had finally broken out of their recent shooting slump against Brooklyn, I’d feel confident in calling them for the win. That didn’t happen, so I’m flummoxed.

This being a home game, I’ll give the edge to our team.

Toronto Raptors 121 – Milwaukee Bucks 118