Toronto Raptors: Without JV, 3 keys to beating Blazers are different

The Toronto Raptors try to stretch their west coast winning streak to 3 with a stop in Portland. The Trail Blazers will be tough, particularly if Toronto is short-staffed.

The Toronto Raptors need to learn how to continue their winning ways without center Jonas Valanciunas. The hard-working and well-liked Lithuanian won’t be back before the New Year after Golden State’s Draymond Green karate-chopped his hand, resulting in a dislocated thumb.

Kawhi Leonard missed the back to back victories over the Clippers and Warriors; his status for tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers is unknown.

The Blazers are relatively healthy, and will be happy should Toronto hold out Leonard again. However, as their 15-13 record indicates, they are more than strong enough to grab a victory either way. Though the Blazers have dominated this match-up historically, the Raptors haven’t lost to Portland since March of 2015.

Portland has been kept afloat largely because of the efforts of their three best players. The backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum averages 49 points per game [PG]. Center Josef Nurkic is a reliable double-double producer and a fine passer. After that, their roster falls off a house.

The other two starters are justifiably obscure small forward Jake Layman, and journeyman power forward Al-Farouq Aminu. Then you get into a rotation typified by Evan Turner and Nik Stauskas, both of whom have bounced around the league without ever making the impact expected for their various teams. Stauskas was supposed to be the league’s next great 3-point shooter, but his career average is a ho-hum 35.1% from deep. He doesn’t have a whole lot else to sell, so he’s moved on. Maybe he’ll join his hometown Raptors some day.

The only Blazer other than Portland’s Big Three with a PER above 15 (the number for a mythical average NBA player) is big man Meyers Leonard, at 18.6. With the Raptors being shorthanded up front, we may see this fellow more than his average of 12.2 minutes PG.

3 keys to victory over Portland

1. Serge, stay in the game. I don’t like commenting about individuals, as I’m pushing team tactics here. That said, Serge’s infuriating habit of getting whistled for moving screens, pushes and reach-ins could prove disastrous. If he’s forced to sit, we’re relying on Greg Monroe (who can get in foul trouble of his own at great speed) or the just-recalled Chris Boucher. Gulp. Nurkic will have a field day, and Aminu can clean the boards.
2. Don’t let Lillard out of your sight. McCollum is eminently capable of racking up major points (he just dropped 40 in a losing effort against the Grizzlies), but Dame is scarier. The Raptors’ defensive switching must be super-crisp, because neither of their gunners need much time or space to get up quality (for them, anyway) shots. The Raptors have been nasty on D lately, so I’m confident they can rise to the challenge.
3. Box them out. Yes, that’s a motherhood tactic, but it must be said. Portland is second in rebounding, and will be hunting down everything in JV’s absence. Strong defensive rebounding against an opponent who isn’t falling back following a shot attempt can lead to excellent transition opportunities.

Prediction

The Raptors enjoy dramatically better depth at every position than the Blazers. Could this be the game in which C.J. Miles shakes off his season-long slump? The Raptors have won two straight, the Blazers have dropped a pair; I think both of those trends continue.

Toronto Raptors 118 – Portland Trail Blazers 105