Toronto Raptors: Which Kyle Lowry will show up in the playoffs?

Kyle Lowry broke out of his shooting slump as the Toronto Raptors beat the Clippers and Warriors on a back-to-back. Can Lowry keep up this level of play?

Kyle Lowry is an elite NBA player, and he’s been one of the best point guards in the Eastern Conference for the past five years.  He’s also played some of the worst playoff basketball in recent memory and is prone to prolonged offensive slumps.

Lowry’s five-game stretch before his resurgence against the Clippers was some of the worst basketball he’s played as a Raptor when it comes to scoring the ball, but Lowry going cold offensively is something Raptor fans have seen before.

Lowry’s Achilles heel has always been his inability to play at a high level consistently.  Each of the Raptors’ playoff meltdowns have coincided with collapses by Lowry or DeRozan.  A big reason why the Raptors are being taken more seriously as contenders this season is because Kawhi Leonard has already proven that he can perform under NBA Finals lights.

Injuries have been the cause of poor Lowry performances in the past.  In the early days of the DeRozan-Lowry pairing, Lowry was sometimes asked to do too much and cracked under pressure.  I won’t even mention LeBron James…

It hasn’t all been bad though, and one of the reasons that the Raptors have enjoyed success in recent years is that when Lowry slumps, he manages to get out of it eventually.  But as we’ve seen historically, the margin for error in a playoff series is so much smaller than that of the regular season.

A stretch of bad games can send you home in the NBA playoffs, and whether or not you can bounce back after a poor performance becomes irrelevant.  For the Raptors to be successful, Kyle Lowry needs to avoid those bad performances altogether.

It’s hard to predict how Kyle Lowry will play on any given night, but a look back at past performances could uncover clues as to what works and what doesn’t when it comes to preparing him for the playoffs.

Playoffs of recent years

The Raptors’ most successful playoff run was in 2016 when they reached the conference finals.  During the 2015-16 regular season, Lowry averaged 37 minutes per game, which was the second highest of his career.  He was able to avoid any serious injuries during that year and had a serviceable backup point guard in Cory Joseph, who could run an offense while Lowry was off the floor or playing as an off-guard.

Lowry averaged 19 points and six assists during the 2016 playoffs, and although it took the Raptors two game seven victories to advance to the conference finals, they ended the year with two wins against the eventual champion Cleveland Cavaliers.

Lowry’s worst playoff showing came the year before, in the 2015 playoffs.  The Raptors were swept by the Washington Wizards despite having home court advantage.  In the four playoff losses, Lowry put up a combined 49 points.

He would later admit that he was dealing with an injury, which partially explained his poor play.  In the regular season leading up to the series, Lowry averaged 34.5 minutes per game and dealt with nagging injuries throughout the year.  His backup at point-guard was Greivis Vasquez, who was crafty and capable, but a poor defender and outside shooter.

Avoiding injuries is critical for any NBA player, and in the past, when Lowry’s been able to play full, healthy seasons, he’s been at his best in the playoffs.

It’s also been beneficial to have tough-minded backup point guards, who are able to defend when Lowry’s not on the floor.  Greivis Vasquez’ inability to defend quick guards showed when he was faced with John Wall in 2015.  Corey Joseph’s ability to hound opposing point guards showed during the 2016 series against the Cavaliers, when he shut down Kyrie Irving in the two Raptors wins.

The quality of Lowry’s backup determines how well-rested he will be come playoff time. Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright each bring unique skills to the table.  Lowry can rest and take time off as the primary playmaker on this year’s Raptors team, which is a very good sign.

So far, Lowry’s been able to avoid serious injury, and the free-flowing offense Nick Nurse has implemented allows for Lowry to settle in as a distributor, rather than one of the primary scorers every night, which means less wear and tear for Lowry as the season progresses.

With the addition of Leonard, who has the ability to command a double team, Lowry has more access to open and easy shots.

Lastly, Lowry’s minutes are up slightly from last year, but that’s not necessarily a bad sign.  While rest and health are important, Lowry needs to be comfortable with his jump shot when the playoffs begin, and as we saw in 2016, Lowry’s high minutes per game averages translated into career-best playoff performances.

There’s no way to know exactly how Kyle Lowry will perform come playoff time.  Lowry’s chances of success can be increased, however, if the Raptors can learn from the past.  So far this season, it looks like they have, but Nick Nurse needs to monitor the situation carefully, because without Kyle Lowry playing like he did in Oakland the other night, the Raptors aren’t a contender.