R.J. Barrett: Checking in on the Top Canadian NBA Prospect

Ranked as the top prospect heading into the season, Canadian star R.J. Barrett has helped lead Duke to an 11-1 record. While still a bluechip prospect, Barrett is beginning to show some of his flaws and he will need to answer them if he hopes to remain near the top.

R.J. Barrett has been the consensus top high school prospect even before the 2018 NBA Draft. That’s what being Canadian basketball royalty gets you. His father, Rowan Barrett, is one of Canada basketball’s most important figures, and his godfather is some cat called Steve Nash.

Teaming up with fellow elite prospects in Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish, Barrett enrolled with Duke and formed one of college basketball’s “superteams”.

Looking at his basic numbers: 23.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, Barrett is seemingly doing a solid job. He’s leading Duke to wins, and the #2 ranking on the AP leaderboard. Yet his draft stock has dropped over the last few weeks.

What gives?

Hero Ball in Hawaii

The love affair with R.J. Barrett turned sour just six games into the season. Against the eighth-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs, Barrett singlehandedly cost Duke the game and the Maui Invitational title.

It was painful to watch as Barrett missed his final four field goal attempts as Duke lost 87-89. Barrett shot 9-of-25 (36%) for the game and did his best impression of Russell Westbrook by hogging the ball and forcing bad shots.

The rest of the team was shooting 46.8% (22-of-47) with Williamson and Tre Jones combining to score 39 points. Yet Barrett carried the ball, went coast-to-coast and put up awful shots. He bricked a layup and got blocked by Rui Hachimura.

Barrett was making difficult shots inside, a testament to how skilled he was at finishing, but his tunnel vision was a massive red flag.

Despite still costing his team the game, Duke wouldn’t have been in the position to win considering how horribly their first-half went. Barrett helped lead Duke to a 48-42 second-half comeback that fell just short.

While Barrett handled the final minute of the game poorly, he showed a tremendous amount of determination. His mistakes were tactical errors, which are still coachable. Barrett will learn and be smarter.

Shooting Slumps

The loss against Gonzaga was but a symptom in what would be a trend for Barrett: prolonged scoring slumps, not due to his inability to score but his decision-making.

Barrett is lighting up the stat sheet, but with closer inspection, he’s struggling to put the ball in the basket. This is most evident when Duke plays ranked teams.

In five games against AP Top-25 teams, Barrett is still averaging 22 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists – right around his season average. But his shooting efficiency has been worrying.

Barrett is shooting a mere 38.3% (41-of-107) from the field and has only hit 28.1% of his threes (9-of-32). If you remove the Kentucky blowout where he scored 33 points on 50% shooting, his numbers take an even more chilling turn: 19.3 points on 34.6% shooting (28-of-81) and 24% from deep (6-of-25).

He is only averaging 2.8 turnovers in this five-game span but his turnover-filled games against Auburn (4) and Texas Tech (6) show that he can be too aggressive at the expense of efficiency.

With a 34.5% usage rate, Barrett leads Duke by at least six per cent (Reddish is second). And while his turnover percent (10.7) is sparkling, he is only in the middle in terms of his Box Plus/Minus (sixth at +7.4).

Barrett has been the team’s focal point on offence even if Williamson has been putting up better stats on average. At this point, Barrett will be the second-best prospect barring any injuries to Williamson.

While Canada’s top prospect has shown glaring weaknesses, he has risen to face the challenges of being a highly-scrutinized athlete. R.J. Barrett has plenty of work left to do, but his dogged determination in winning games gives him a solid foundation and we should be optimistic that his best is yet to come.