Toronto Raptors: 3 keys to W over red-hot Miami

The Toronto Raptors start their Florida trip in Miami against the Heat, who have won 5 straight. Can the banged-up Raps return to their winning ways after being crushed in Philly?

The Toronto Raptors have two stops this week in Florida, with the first being in Miami where the Heat are hot. A five-game win streak has returned them to .500 with a 16-16 mark. The Heat aren’t piling up the points; it’s their defense which has kept them competitive. No opponent (quality teams all) has managed a century against them in this streak. They rank seventh in points allowed with 106.3 for the season, a mere .2 less than they score. In other words, their record is an accurate reflection of their capabilities.

The Raptors fended off the Heat in Toronto a month ago, despite an absurd 35 points from ageless Dwyane Wade. Our guys were fortunate that Josh Richardson, the Heat’s out-of-nowhere top scorer, had an off-night shooting the ball.

Neither Goran Dragic nor Dion Waiters will be back on any court for some weeks to come. The lengthy absence of those two talented scorers might have spelled doom, but veteran coach Erik Spoelstra has effectively rallied his remaining troops.

Hassan Whiteside sits third in the NBA in both total rebounds and blocked shots. His offense is limited to putbacks and slam dunks, but he gets enough of those to average 13.1 points per game [PG]. Bam Adebayo is Whiteside’s backup, and someone I think will emerge as a force soon enough; hopefully not tonight.

Ex-Raptor James Johnson has started 15 games, and can have an impact as long as he shoots within 10 feet of the basket. He’s tough as nails, to an almost dangerous degree.

Swingmen Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder are like bookends. They chip in on offense, and defend vigorously. Winslow has a higher ceiling.

Off the bench, Kelly Olynyk is a capable “stretch-5” who can take the ball to the rack if challenged. Wade will keep defenders honest, and Wayne Ellington provides instant scoring punch from beyond the arc.

3 keys to Toronto Raptors victory

1. Make your shots count. With Whiteside on the prowl, there won’t be a lot of offensive rebounds to be had against the Heat. The Raps need to move the ball and get quality looks – then knock them down.
2. If you’re going to foul anyone, make it Whiteside. The Heat rank tenth in free-throw attempts PG, but a shocking 29th in percentage made. Whiteside is the latter-day Wilt Chamberlain; he’s hit a sad 45% of his tries.
3. Play them tight. Miami is fifth in 3-balls tried, and tenth in percentage of makes. As with 1. above, accept that we’ll need to play one-and-done (particularly if Serge Ibaka sits again). That should result in fewer Miami transition shots from deep.

Prediction

An injury-plagued Raptors squad on the road against a hot team featuring excellent D…this won’t be easy. Can our guys finally rediscover their shooting strokes? Let’s say Yes.

Toronto Raptors 109 – Miami Heat 99