Toronto Raptors: Increased ball movement has all sorts of side effects

The Toronto Raptors have increased their ball movement in recent weeks, but that might have some negative side effects. Those side effects could well carry into their series with the Orlando Magic.

The first round of the playoffs is underway for 16 of the best teams in the NBA, including the Toronto Raptors. Things didn’t go quite as planned in game one against the Orlando Magic with the Raptors losing to a late D.J. Augustin dagger.

One thing to keep an eye on in this series, and moving forward if the Raptors are to progress past the first round, is the recent trend upwards in ball movement and the positive and negative impact it could have on the series.

The Negative

Since the Marc Gasol trade, the Raptors rank 24th in the league in turnover percentage, at 14-percent. Before the trade, the percentage was hardly different at 13.7-percent, but the team ranked in the top 12. Again, hardly different but a big jump in the standings.

The problem starts to arise when the Raptors lose, though. In the eight games the Raptors have lost since the Gasol trade, they have a league-worst turnover percentage of 15.7-percent.

In comparison to the 16 games the Raptors lost before the trade, it’s not a good look. They had the sixth-best turnover percentage in losses at 13.7-percent. Basically, the number didn’t change between wins and losses.

The Raptors final five losses of the season, dating back to March 10, they had the leagues worst turnover percentage at 16.7-percent, which included a 21 turnover outing against the Oklahoma City Thunder. In that game, both Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam combined for 15 turnovers, phased by the Thunder’s blitzing defense, anchored by Paul George.

And while, technically, that problem didn’t rear its ugly head as much as it could have against the Orlando Magic (the Raptors only had 12 turnovers in the game), playing a team that boasts one of the best defenses in the league could certainly exacerbate the situation.

Lengthy and quick defenders like Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon, and Wesley Iwundu all have the potential to rip the ball out your hands and forcing you into turning the ball over. Those three players alone combined for seven forced turnovers in the opening game, with Isaac standing out with three blocks.

Turnovers are bad, but they’re far more detrimental when opposing teams can turn them into points. The numbers didn’t really change between pre and post-All-Star break, the Raptors went from giving up 15.8 points per game off of turnovers to just over 16 points per game after the break, courtesy of how good the Raptors defense can be in transition.

Still, we’ve already seen strange things happen in game one of the playoffs, there’s always a chance that the Raptors burgeoning nasty habit could follow them into the postseason.

The Positive

Thankfully, there’s a few that counteract the negatives.

Pre All-Star break, and more specifically before the Marc Gasol trade, the Toronto Raptors ranked 20th in the league in assist percentage at 58.5-percent. Incredibly, the percentage post-Marc Gasol trade rose to 64.7-percent, good for fourth in the league.

Basically, Gasol’s presence has turned the Raptors into one of the best passing teams in the NBA. His stature as one of the best passing big men of all time has given the Raptors yet another playmaker, and something a lot of NBA teams don’t have. A terrific passer at the center position.

Gasol has actively made the Raptors a better passing team, and since his arrival, they make the fifth most passes in the league, at 315 passes per game and lead the NBA in secondary assists (hockey assists) in that time.

All of this led to the Raptors being the top dogs from three-point range in the final few months of the season, leading the league at 41.5-percent per game. It’s also led to some of the best basketball the team has played for a long time.

Ironically, the Raptors got a raw deal against the Magic in the first game of the series, shooting only 33-percent from three, compared to 48-percent for the visiting team. It’s hopefully nothing more than an aberration because even though they might be turning over the ball more often, they most definitely are a better team.