The Toronto Raptors have been here before: The stakes of Game 4

With their season on the line, the Toronto Raptors’ performance in Game 4 will tell you everything you need to know about this year’s team.

The Toronto Raptors have been here before.

It was a different group of players, save for Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and Norman Powell. But just two years ago, the Raptors found themselves with their backs against the wall. They came into Milwaukee in a series tied 1-1, only to suffer an embarrassing 104-77 beatdown.

If they’d lost Game 4, it was almost certain that they’d lose the series. Teams leading a series 3-1 have won the series more than 95 percent of the time. Only 11 teams in NBA history have overcome such a deficit.

Maybe Toronto fans should take comfort in that Raptors-Bucks matchup considering the Raptors gutted out a road victory in Game 4 and won the series in six games.

Or maybe they should be terrified. Toronto’s current opponent, the Philadelphia 76ers, is far superior to that 2017 Milwaukee team. This win will be much more difficult.

Two seasons ago, Toronto’s best player – Kyle Lowry – would be a free agent on July 1. It wasn’t about just one season, the team’s future hung in the balance. This year, the Raptors are at risk of losing Kawhi Leonard.

Leonard is a better player than Lowry has ever been; he’s likely the best in-his-prime player in franchise history. And while the team always knew the risk of acquiring him last summer, it would still hurt to lose not only an elite player but an all-time great playoff performer.

Leonard is currently second in 2019 playoff scoring at 31.5 points per game. He also scores much more efficiently in the postseason, unlike most other stars:

The Raptors almost certainly won’t win this series if they lose Sunday afternoon’s game. It’s not technically a must-win, but it might as well be.

And if they lose the series….. well, no one really knows what it’ll take to convince Leonard to re-sign. Still, it’s hard to imagine him staying in Toronto after a second-round exit. Like all the remaining Eastern Conference teams, the Raptors were all-in on making the Finals this season. A conference finals loss would be disappointing; a loss to the 76ers would be downright unacceptable.

If Leonard does leave, it would only be a matter of time before Lowry, Ibaka, and Gasol – all 2020 free agents – are out. The Raptors would pivot to a re-build, or at least re-tool, around Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.

The most successful stretch in franchise history would be over. It would officially mark the end of the “We The North” era, which began with Lowry’s emergence as an All-Star calibre player back in the 2013-14 season.

It’s natural for fans to panic in the moment – Toronto just suffered a humiliating Game 3 loss to Philadelphia, 116-95, and even the final score didn’t quite reflect how bad the Raptors played.

A quick history lesson can provide some much-needed perspective, though. Raptors starters Leonard and Danny Green can attest, the Spurs beat the Heat by 36 in Game 3 of the 2013 Finals; Miami still won the series.

The last time the Raptors and 76ers met in the playoffs, Toronto dominated Game 3 in a 24-point win before losing the series in seven games. Less than a week ago, the Celtics and Bucks traded blowouts of 22 and 21 points, respectively. No matter the margin of victory, a playoff win is only worth exactly that: just one win.

But when we talk about NBA history, it’s tough to ignore Toronto’s playoff past. In 2014, the Raptors lost a Game 7 at home by a single point. In 2015, they got swept in embarrassing fashion. Two years ago, LeBron James showed his disdain for the Raptors during a massacre of a sweep, and he did more of the same last year in a series that many experts picked Toronto to win.

Raptors fans have been punched and knocked out time and time again, in every which way. It may seem silly to act like the sky is falling; a 2-1 series deficit is hardly insurmountable. FiveThirtyEight still gives Toronto a 51-percent chance to win the series, and the Raptors would regain homecourt advantage and drown out the noise with a win on Sunday.

Even so, this loss digs a little deeper into the fan base’s perpetual insecurities over past playoff woes. The players are different, sure. The results are still damning. Brett Brown has coached circles around Nick Nurse; Toronto’s bench has shriveled and died like an uncovered garden in Canadian winters; Lowry and Marc Gasol have essentially refused to take open shots.

A rational, objective person would point out that these problems are totally unrelated to the franchise’s past playoff failures – perhaps aside from Lowry’s struggles.

Nurse talked about the team creating “their own history” this year. The Raptors are better, more equipped to bounce back from this kind of loss. But isn’t it fair to question why a loss like this could happen at all? In the playoffs, every game matters. One way or another, the next 48 hours will demonstrate all you need to know about the Raptors’ mental fortitude.

It’s not over. In fact, one win is all it will take to flip the narrative. A win in Philadelphia, under the utmost pressure against a talented team and an intimidating crowd, might fix it all.

The bottom line, though, is that the Raptors got embarrassed badly in their most important game of the season to date. So, maybe it’s fortunate for them that the next one will be even more important. This may be their only chance for redemption.

It’s too early to write the Raptors’ obituary. But if Game 4 doesn’t go as hoped, they may have to get started on a last will and testament.